TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,293
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,916

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,293 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e15…7531backed Bulls52c17,500$9,100 inLost-$9,099.992343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Nuggets48c16,458$7,900 inWon+$8,558.3329650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets56c3,874$2,155 inWon+$1,719.88,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bulls50c3,199$1,600 inLost-$1,599.721,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Nuggets48c1,070$514 inWon+$556.443052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls52c499.26$260 inLost-$259.623,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc9…58c7backed Nuggets48c416.67$200 inWon+$216.672536%9 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Bulls7c300$21 inLost-$2144821.4%96 W · 352 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls51c228.98$117 inLost-$116.789,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Nuggets49c204.08$100 inWon+$104.0831551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Bulls53c200$106 inLost-$10619556.9%111 W · 84 L+20.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0ff4…9a30backed Bulls8c200$16 inLost-$162630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets47c124.77$59 inWon+$66.132,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Nuggets48c93.01$45 inWon+$48.3624045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls52c85.89$45 inLost-$44.664,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Nuggets46c55.56$26 inWon+$3024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd913…2cf7backed Bulls54c55.56$30 inLost-$303438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdda3…f5f5backed Nuggets48c52.08$25 inWon+$27.083040%12 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Bulls52c47.74$25 inLost-$257855.1%43 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa825…2ef0backed Nuggets80c44.08$35 inWon+$8.824445.5%20 W · 24 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.