NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa00b75ce8c6246cba85a54761c64368812af20c6f7e0d1d807a25c75ee513f2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 11,596$5,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,796.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 5,935$2,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967.57 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 4,251$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.8 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 3,860$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 2,452$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.17 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 1,637$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.29 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Over | 51c | 1,462$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.65 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 50c | 1,230$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…dbaabacked Under | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 379 | 30.6%116 W · 263 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 406.27$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.2 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 52c | 329.02$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.93 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 30c | 251.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 67c | 172.82$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474f…9650backed Over | 51c | 84.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 51c | 49.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…12ffbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 48c | 33.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 51c | 21.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeea…0c83backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Bulls won
- Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Nuggets vs. BullsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.