NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66e5cb6e04b0241a573d96e92529688164f53115138bad1b58884ddb85036f29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dc5…1915backed Over | 52c | 5,859$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…2d35backed Under | 48c | 5,728$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…8749backed Under | 48c | 4,583$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d1…72bebacked Over | 52c | 4,528$2,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…98b8backed Under | 48c | 3,350$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…2bc9backed Over | 52c | 3,325$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 46c | 3,311$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c25…3968backed Under | 48c | 2,573$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…724abacked Over | 52c | 2,433$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c15…6ba5backed Over | 52c | 1,877$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…3f88backed Under | 48c | 1,787$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 55c | 1,667$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.27 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 1,286$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 47c | 1,049$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.3 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Over | 55c | 1,021$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.26 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 55c | 951$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.95 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…ca86backed Over | 52c | 674.28$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Over | 58c | 652.1$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.88 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Over | 56c | 418.33$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.07 | 214 | 46.7%100 W · 114 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 55c | 319$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.55 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 289.3$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 52c | 271.4$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.89 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 127.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 101.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 52c | 58.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…027abacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 58c | 34.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Over | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 29.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 26.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 60c | 21.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…8c10backed Under | 49c | 21.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Bulls won
- Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Nuggets vs. BullsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.