NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9c92e3b09e1cb591208e245c048b4e53a7e38ee172d19e3c6889a5c4ecf5655
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 56c | 21,318$11,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,349.94 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 56c | 12,548$7,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,473.2 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 9,856$4,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,287.16 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 6,256$2,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,741.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 3,550$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd462…eaecbacked Under | 39c | 3,142$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bde…ca3abacked Over | 61c | 3,142$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 44c | 2,727$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.8 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…ac40backed Under | 43c | 2,293$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 45c | 1,587$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.32 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 41c | 1,480$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.07 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 46c | 1,425$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.5 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 43c | 1,379$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.12 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…8c5ebacked Under | 45c | 948.89$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 801.21$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.51 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 45c | 786.66$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 45c | 707$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.15 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 46c | 340.59$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.67 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 43c | 256$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 31c | 235.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…78a5backed Under | 44c | 227.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…e78cbacked Under | 44c | 219.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed0…c618backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…9d18backed Over | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 38c | 157.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 57c | 155.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Under | 44c | 151.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Under | 45c | 151.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 145 | 57.9%84 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Under | 43c | 143$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 219 | 37%81 W · 138 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under | 36c | 130.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 74c | 125$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 65c | 118.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 58c | 110.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 73c | 102.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Under | 44c | 97.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 39c | 85.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Under | 39c | 76.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 55c | 71.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed Over | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 35c | 67.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…5f48backed Under | 44c | 61.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 68c | 61.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 412 | 51%210 W · 202 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1caf…f649backed Over | 64c | 57.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 33c | 57.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7a…737bbacked Under | 45c | 55.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 35c | 46.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 65c | 42.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb34…4e5cbacked Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Over | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 44c | 27.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 41c | 25.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…c7e6backed Over | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 76c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9831…9578backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…d7e9backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Bulls won
- Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Nuggets vs. BullsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.