NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13ce08fdd0e50e43d186466e02a40b8888f5dc3b8608b0dfb445d546f9bf6a73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Bulls | 47c | 13,155$6,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,182.89 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Nuggets | 60c | 8,640$5,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,460.42 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…0bfabacked Nuggets | 56c | 8,438$4,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,736.4 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Nuggets | 52c | 8,024$4,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,848.62 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cee…9e69backed Bulls | 47c | 6,619$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,111 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Bulls | 41c | 5,263$2,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,157.91 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 44c | 4,965$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 57c | 4,431$2,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Bulls | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50e…2609backed Nuggets | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked Bulls | 45c | 2,400$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 203 | 55.2%112 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets | 55c | 2,376$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.59 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…2459backed Nuggets | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…3b8cbacked Nuggets | 53c | 1,619$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Nuggets | 54c | 1,297$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.62 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Nuggets | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Bulls | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Nuggets | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 53c | 565.08$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.59 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Bulls | 42c | 531.67$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Bulls | 41c | 480.25$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.76 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Bulls | 40c | 379.43$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Nuggets | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bulls | 59c | 298.8$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.66 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Bulls | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Nuggets | 53c | 187$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Nuggets | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Bulls | 40c | 153.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 219 | 37%81 W · 138 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls | 47c | 127.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7226…873dbacked Nuggets | 53c | 120.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Nuggets | 53c | 106.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nuggets | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Nuggets | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Nuggets | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 42c | 79.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Nuggets | 52c | 68.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Nuggets | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…036abacked Bulls | 44c | 67.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b14…13dcbacked Bulls | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Nuggets | 38c | 58.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Nuggets | 52c | 54.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Bulls | 44c | 50.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Bulls | 48c | 47.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Bulls | 48c | 42.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 49c | 42.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nuggets | 56c | 39.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…c767backed Nuggets | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…daf0backed Nuggets | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Nuggets | 60c | 29.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Bulls | 42c | 28.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bulls | 54c | 28.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…13d8backed Nuggets | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Bulls | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Nuggets | 46c | 23.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Nuggets | 60c | 21.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Nuggets | 53c | 21.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Nuggets | 54c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Bulls won
- Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Nuggets vs. BullsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.