NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x773d1d852bc77460d60d2ab1afe158ce47cd5456f59e2a5ea93d665d7fcf4aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Over | 53c | 19,221$10,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,941.51 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Under | 46c | 9,133$4,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,201.02 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 47c | 8,550$4,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,018.5 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under | 47c | 5,225$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455.6 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 3,489$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 2,650$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.61 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 2,601$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.12 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…ca86backed Over | 54c | 1,448$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 1,036$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.73 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 46c | 978.26$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 5c | 943.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 638$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.09 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Over | 53c | 527.12$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.75 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 507.61$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.35 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Over | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 71c | 406.9$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.28 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 25c | 144.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 73c | 130.02$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 67c | 100.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Over | 56c | 98.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 78c | 80.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 53c | 58.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 64c | 44.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Under | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 41c | 39.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 43c | 33.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Over | 76c | 33.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 60c | 32.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 61c | 29.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Over | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 308 | 40.9%126 W · 182 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…0b3dbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Bulls won
- Cameron Johnson: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Nuggets vs. BullsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.