Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d96b5a2fb6f4bb82d42bcf5ac8a23d0f985397134309738e22175681f4fef26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 8c | 927.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 77c | 220$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 47c | 207.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 80c | 199.97$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 41c | 194.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 54c | 160$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 53c | 160$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 41c | 145.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed No | 51c | 139.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 52c | 131.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 122.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 92.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 64c | 92.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 39c | 84.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 75c | 80.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 76.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked No | 47c | 70.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…589abacked No | 54c | 59.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 56.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 37c | 54.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 54.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 53.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 77c | 44.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 44.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 51c | 41.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 40.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 68c | 38.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 35.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 34.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 49c | 34.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 46c | 32.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f32…870cbacked Yes | 51c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 51c | 29.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 62c | 28.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 28.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 50c | 26.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…bc87backed No | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 49c | 24.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 51c | 23.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 23.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e3…f73fbacked No | 53c | 22.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 80c | 22.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 60c | 21.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 70c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 20.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked No | 51c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 17.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.