Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f301fa47f9ebc7aeac9909347759a3d6f084e0b1c22dd07bf684f6d935c97c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 1,836$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.2 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 1,188$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 661.48$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 61c | 623.62$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.95 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 558.95$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 39c | 490$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.36 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 63c | 489.05$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.1 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 414.5$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 384.63$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 348$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 41c | 232.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 232.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 219.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 182.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 36c | 179.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 27c | 157.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 156.21$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 59c | 132.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 119.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 119.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 59c | 118.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 114$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 107.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 61c | 104.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 44c | 102.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 100.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked Yes | 41c | 97.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 93.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 35c | 89.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 35c | 75.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 74.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 19c | 74.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 36c | 65.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 37c | 63.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 67c | 59.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 51.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 40c | 48.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 40c | 48.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 41.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 60c | 40.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 41c | 38.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 37c | 37.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 37c | 33.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 39c | 29.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 59c | 25.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 59c | 25.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…2bcebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 62c | 24.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…1ed3backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 59c | 20.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 61c | 19.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 17.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 69c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.