Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb53074fe66f298414b8eca21ea7fde82e552d9df246527f7daca0d670e8c93b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 39c | 3,468$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.18 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 862.1$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 588.06$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 571$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.31 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 30c | 488.66$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.06 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 461$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 42c | 438$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.04 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 394.49$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 390.47$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 359.12$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 50c | 273.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.63 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 44c | 259.33$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.64 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 198.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 179.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 48c | 169.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 8c | 143.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 127$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 38c | 118.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 117.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…e64bbacked Yes | 40c | 116.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…5cf7backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 103$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 48c | 101.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 94.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 92.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 88.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 85.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 81.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 76.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 76.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 73.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 72.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 71.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 72c | 69.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…7e92backed Yes | 40c | 57.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 47c | 53.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 62c | 51.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 53c | 39.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 47c | 39.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 38.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 62c | 38.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 61c | 38.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 54c | 35.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 38c | 32.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 47c | 32.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 43c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 37c | 29.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 27.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 42c | 25.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc7…5e40backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 42c | 24.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 48c | 24.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked No | 53c | 23.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…f600backed Yes | 65c | 23.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 60c | 20.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 55c | 19.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 16.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.