Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa001589e8179292bc576ab9e0eb02361036a44b372216c43e0e1dd7372338cb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bb9…1f8fbacked No | 54c | 3,400$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 33c | 2,312$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.72 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No | 17c | 2,158$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 71c | 1,823$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.9 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 48c | 1,759$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.73 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 44c | 1,491$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.94 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 41c | 1,369$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.19 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 60c | 1,126$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.88 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 47c | 1,114$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.4 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…e90bbacked No | 70c | 1,001$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a0…5254backed Yes | 73c | 998.73$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.07 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 981.76$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 54c | 980.01$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.34 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 56c | 926.71$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.22 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed No | 59c | 842.11$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.77 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 29c | 576.37$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.33 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 78c | 565.56$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.35 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 23c | 493.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 484.73$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 59c | 429.61$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.1 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef3…519dbacked No | 70c | 424.94$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 73c | 423.47$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.3 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 44c | 396.81$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.18 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 63c | 396.53$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.53 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed Yes | 66c | 375.55$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 52c | 359.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…8a4ebacked No | 73c | 357.18$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.73 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 23c | 345.85$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 54c | 287.94$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.77 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 280.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 51c | 273.63$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 53c | 225.91$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 223.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 47c | 223.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 51c | 219.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 202.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.76 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 50c | 200.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 43c | 199.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.99 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 57c | 190$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 75c | 189.76$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 51c | 180.44$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 39c | 168.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 164.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 53c | 164.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…bacebacked No | 59c | 164.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…799ebacked No | 62c | 162.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9326…1684backed Yes | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…93fbbacked No | 67c | 159.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3984…20e8backed No | 67c | 154.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +69%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 47c | 152.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc012…543fbacked Yes | 49c | 152.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 149.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 60c | 133$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 50c | 132.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 55c | 130.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed Yes | 78c | 129.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 49c | 125.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…047abacked Yes | 41c | 124.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 55c | 120.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 49c | 117.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 40c | 116.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 74c | 115.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 110.13$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 32c | 110.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 63c | 109.57$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa000…83e9backed Yes | 56c | 107.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…742dbacked Yes | 60c | 105.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c03bbacked No | 47c | 103.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 28c | 102.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 99.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked No | 31c | 96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 36c | 90.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…b136backed Yes | 43c | 89.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 62c | 89.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 43c | 88.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 20c | 87.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 46c | 85.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 48c | 83.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2d…a194backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1e…7d0cbacked Yes | 61c | 79.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a68…9046backed No | 68c | 75.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 78c | 74.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…8a6cbacked No | 61c | 74.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 50c | 71.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc38c…fd95backed Yes | 45c | 67.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790d…2217backed No | 49c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…85c2backed Yes | 55c | 65.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.