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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,892
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,892 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bb9…1f8fbacked No54c3,400$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850.86728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No33c2,312$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.723158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No17c2,158$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes71c1,823$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes48c1,759$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.7348331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes44c1,491$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.949429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes41c1,369$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.1918727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes60c1,126$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.8834651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes47c1,114$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.431341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77ce…e90bbacked No70c1,001$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.21844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a0…5254backed Yes73c998.73$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.071464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No14c981.76$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9959742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes54c980.01$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.3495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1672…03f1backed Yes56c926.71$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.225635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed No59c842.11$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.7713533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No29c576.37$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.3371823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes78c565.56$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.3531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No23c493.52$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.334319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No48c484.73$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.142,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes59c429.61$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.11,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef3…519dbacked No70c424.94$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.89966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b5…5aa7backed No73c423.47$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.316242.6%69 W · 93 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No44c396.81$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.1826339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes63c396.53$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5311646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa428…40c6backed Yes66c375.55$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.51361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes52c359.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.616036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe581…8a4ebacked No73c357.18$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.731553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No23c345.85$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6427079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes54c287.94$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.7729922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c280.02$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes51c273.63$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.811359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes53c225.91$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2954037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes18c223.65$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.523,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes47c223.05$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.7510542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked No51c219.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.216432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes15c202.71$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.761,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No50c200.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes43c199.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.997950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes45c199.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes57c190$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.24,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4122…6c07backed Yes75c189.76$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.563554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes51c180.44$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4398160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes39c168.46$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.087323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No47c164.86$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes53c164.43$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0338840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e4d…bacebacked No59c164.32$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.47560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55a1…799ebacked No62c162.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9326…1684backed Yes60c160$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bc…93fbbacked No67c159.65$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3984…20e8backed No67c154.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.541258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+69%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes47c152.53$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3324442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc012…543fbacked Yes49c152.08$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.71475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes76c150$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3632444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes14c150$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1291,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No48c149.2$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.927,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8610235.3%36 W · 66 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes60c133$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6233139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes50c132.54$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3411436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed Yes55c130.61$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.955056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7660…c588backed Yes78c129.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.092462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+56.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe201…3f41backed No49c125.63$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.44040%16 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-30%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes50c125$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.57823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x534d…047abacked Yes41c124.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes55c120.33$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7716465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes42c120$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.61,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x517e…4fb2backed No49c117.91$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.139076.7%69 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed Yes40c116.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1815759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No74c115.88$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.191,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes70c110.13$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0433058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes32c110.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0134618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes63c109.57$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6632548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa000…83e9backed Yes56c107.72$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.72933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-35.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa05f…742dbacked Yes60c105.73$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.731181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa00c…c03bbacked No47c103.42$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes28c102.74$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4522236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.28438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x968b…e4c5backed No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807334.2%25 W · 48 L-10.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.325619.6%11 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9995942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes37c99.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4923633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes45c99.57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked No31c96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302010%2 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No36c90.59$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6151762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9468…b136backed Yes43c89.41$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.31435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b22…8945backed No62c89.06$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.925341.5%105 W · 148 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes43c88.22$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.468835.2%31 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1720…2e74backed Yes20c87.75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.24047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes46c85.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4310650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cde…1af7backed No48c83.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020146.3%93 W · 108 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2d…a194backed Yes35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe1e…7d0cbacked Yes61c79.88$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a68…9046backed No68c75.85$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.52560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6a…5192backed Yes78c74.79$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.798740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda89…8a6cbacked No61c74.74$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.931637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes50c71.58$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7917231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc38c…fd95backed Yes45c67.8$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.191838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x790d…2217backed No49c67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.83757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6746…85c2backed Yes55c65.02$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.