Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf654a61b4dc4797da22955b9f07f34137a24f4113ef4bb5c817d8a182ef994ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ebc…cd5dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,841$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 20c | 2,177$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.65 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,544$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.42 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 27c | 1,370$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.81 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 41c | 1,107$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.01 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 51c | 671.88$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.95 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 54c | 654.05$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.17 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 57c | 650.69$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.47 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 8c | 630.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 19c | 570.94$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 14c | 526.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 23c | 451.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 6c | 357.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…3942backed Yes | 28c | 352.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 307.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed No | 78c | 305.03$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 18c | 303.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 33c | 289.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 275.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 32c | 260.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…aff3backed Yes | 8c | 257.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 25c | 255.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 46c | 251.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.57 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 251.51$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 50c | 250.44$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.47 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 57c | 240.11$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 52c | 222.77$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.14 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 210.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 20c | 205.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 49c | 198.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0edc…59b1backed Yes | 42c | 196.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 15c | 194.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 30c | 193.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 58c | 182.75$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 27c | 177.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…9ed8backed No | 80c | 162.37$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a68…9046backed No | 69c | 147.45$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 28c | 139.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 137.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Yes | 28c | 133.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 33c | 130.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…1109backed Yes | 40c | 130.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 39c | 126.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 68c | 116.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 37c | 113.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 56c | 111.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 47c | 103.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 19c | 102.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 16c | 100.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 42c | 97.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 41c | 97.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 89.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 62c | 87.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 50c | 85.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 50c | 79.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 38c | 77.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 33c | 74.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 22c | 73.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 59c | 68.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 61c | 67.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked No | 75c | 66.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…5e5bbacked Yes | 30c | 64.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8e…07f8backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 63.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…8a4ebacked Yes | 38c | 63.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…bacebacked Yes | 37c | 61.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…49a9backed Yes | 33c | 60.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 18c | 60.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 33c | 57.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e7…bda3backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 45c | 55.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe63c…8872backed Yes | 32c | 53.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 39c | 51.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 35c | 50.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 49.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…b136backed Yes | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…5ccdbacked Yes | 37c | 45.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 27c | 43.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 59c | 42.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 53c | 40.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…8140backed Yes | 38c | 39.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 64c | 39.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bb…c717backed Yes | 64c | 38.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 79c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 45c | 38.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x001e…4df2backed Yes | 54c | 37.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…eec2backed Yes | 32c | 35.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 30c | 35.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.