TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
paiNof BC.Game Esports, paiN
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$197,751
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$237,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,751 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed BC.Game Esports33c19,076$6,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,344.6633343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed paiN65c12,712$8,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,479.5912353.7%66 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked paiN73c9,697$7,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,622.533,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed paiN68c7,209$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.6433359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed BC.Game Esports33c7,025$2,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,313.2546149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BC.Game Esports16c6,875$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.511,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked paiN72c5,850$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.442,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed paiN73c5,805$4,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.131,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked paiN66c5,736$3,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.8125555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed BC.Game Esports32c4,985$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.311439.5%45 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked BC.Game Esports24c4,568$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.5917849.4%88 W · 90 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BC.Game Esports3c3,509$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5357322.3%128 W · 445 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d1…7ab6backed BC.Game Esports35c3,445$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2004546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8d…a7a8backed BC.Game Esports36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0804748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked BC.Game Esports34c2,599$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.6440140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked BC.Game Esports28c2,052$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.876639.4%26 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BC.Game Esports34c2,004$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.582,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed paiN66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6802934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.7wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-39.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BC.Game Esports24c1,999$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.531,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed BC.Game Esports34c1,965$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.155236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked BC.Game Esports30c1,958$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.5159839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked BC.Game Esports34c1,856$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63120041.5%83 W · 117 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bfe…1220backed paiN67c1,825$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.119266.3%61 W · 31 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed BC.Game Esports28c1,721$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.8187047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a4…cde3backed BC.Game Esports16c1,627$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.833240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked paiN67c1,596$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.721,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked paiN62c1,566$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.7736453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BC.Game Esports27c1,501$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.521,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked paiN67c1,463$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.6953545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed paiN76c1,296$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.466,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1101…dfd5backed BC.Game Esports10c1,245$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-25.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed paiN63c1,200$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44433452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BC.Game Esports38c1,200$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.12,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked BC.Game Esports33c1,173$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.9413952.5%73 W · 66 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked paiN69c1,145$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.8446165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed paiN69c1,094$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.741,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed BC.Game Esports30c1,065$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.694,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed paiN71c1,041$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.5827961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed BC.Game Esports38c1,029$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39234146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed BC.Game Esports22c1,017$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.724247.6%20 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked paiN67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33028657.7%165 W · 121 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked paiN66c999.97$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.9925655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e2…5208backed BC.Game Esports33c999.96$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc43c…e9e8backed BC.Game Esports33c909.09$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked BC.Game Esports34c901.18$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.463541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed BC.Game Esports38c838.92$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.5914839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed paiN62c805.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.1920958.9%123 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed paiN67c800$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26417460.3%105 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed paiN67c800$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26446749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked BC.Game Esports34c752.24$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.7623249.1%114 W · 118 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked paiN67c750$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.51,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed paiN67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.271,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed paiN66c725.5$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.0113754%74 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked paiN66c722.59$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.9215053.3%80 W · 70 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked paiN67c700$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23114257%81 W · 61 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed paiN73c605.06$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.351,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed BC.Game Esports34c588.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023861.3%146 W · 92 L+0.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed BC.Game Esports40c573.26$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.0952951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BC.Game Esports23c551.09$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.427,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked BC.Game Esports37c529.98$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.095,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed paiN76c524.06$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.399533.7%32 W · 63 L-9.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-41.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed BC.Game Esports24c520$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.41,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BC.Game Esports27c512.2$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.295,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed BC.Game Esports36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18032042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked BC.Game Esports3c499.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1569624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked BC.Game Esports38c466.42$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.2455843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0938…4e4cbacked paiN67c447.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.765641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed paiN72c434$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.3617644.9%79 W · 97 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed BC.Game Esports31c417.75$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.438324.1%20 W · 63 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed paiN65c410$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.61,48558%862 W · 623 L+66.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c07…08c5backed paiN65c408.72$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.235438.9%21 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked BC.Game Esports30c400.74$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.251,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked paiN70c391.5$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.254,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BC.Game Esports33c391.26$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.644,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed paiN67c350$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.550846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed BC.Game Esports10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3541716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43f2…6fc2backed paiN66c347.5$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.152352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed BC.Game Esports36c339.05$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0628738%109 W · 178 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed paiN67c335.87$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8438650.8%196 W · 190 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked paiN67c321.64$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.9113850%69 W · 69 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed BC.Game Esports26c316.35$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2535953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked paiN65c315.83$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.843748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed paiN64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.520059%118 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BC.Game Esports35c299.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…33ddbacked paiN67c297.4$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.141457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x614b…ca37backed BC.Game Esports22c272.73$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011959.7%71 W · 48 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked paiN69c272.08$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.372,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed BC.Game Esports34c249.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked BC.Game Esports33c241$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5337149.6%184 W · 187 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked paiN65c230.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.331,04357.3%598 W · 445 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fe…9fe1backed BC.Game Esports15c227.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.132714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-30.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7205…8e0abacked paiN67c225.12$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2911953.8%64 W · 55 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed paiN70c214.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2920344.3%90 W · 113 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed BC.Game Esports33c212.12$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7037232.5%121 W · 251 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed paiN63c210.99$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0728453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked paiN64c202$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7227548%132 W · 143 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x525d…1f1bbacked paiN67c185.07$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0710655.7%59 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f7f…e1edbacked BC.Game Esports22c183.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked paiN65c180$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6384037.9%318 W · 522 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b0…f672backed BC.Game Esports28c177.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.