TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
paiNof BC.Game Esports, paiN
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$288,767
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$322,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,767 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed44…4f76backed BC.Game Esports10c21,532$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,145.7951942.2%219 W · 300 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked BC.Game Esports29c21,461$6,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,236.753,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed paiN52c12,085$6,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,800.9133043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed BC.Game Esports48c11,111$5,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,333.2833343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed paiN59c10,881$6,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,473.210560%63 W · 42 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed BC.Game Esports34c9,208$3,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,106.0587047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed paiN54c8,050$4,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7038043.8%35 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BC.Game Esports14c7,594$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.681,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BC.Game Esports55c7,000$3,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,845.2750054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BC.Game Esports33c6,313$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.481,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BC.Game Esports21c6,263$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3286,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked paiN59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.9912956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed paiN55c4,612$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.3921945.7%100 W · 119 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x482d…ba5ebacked BC.Game Esports26c4,500$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.997441.9%31 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f6…f51cbacked BC.Game Esports48c4,458$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.232360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked BC.Game Esports47c4,146$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.762,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed BC.Game Esports20c4,000$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.054,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked BC.Game Esports47c3,992$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.1664852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked BC.Game Esports45c3,602$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.812245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked paiN76c3,384$2,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.3725555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed paiN48c3,359$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,738.62,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked BC.Game Esports47c3,176$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50053545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed BC.Game Esports48c3,000$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4251,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43f2…6fc2backed paiN52c2,900$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3922352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58d1…7ab6backed BC.Game Esports45c2,412$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.524546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed paiN52c2,192$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.9625248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked BC.Game Esports45c2,173$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.065,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed paiN53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9407450%37 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed BC.Game Esports46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92053746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked paiN56c1,786$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.8921655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed BC.Game Esports31c1,689$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.719533.7%32 W · 63 L-9.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-41.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed paiN63c1,524$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.7717644.9%79 W · 97 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed BC.Game Esports13c1,387$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9912027.5%33 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick27cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BC.Game Esports48c1,350$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.721,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BC.Game Esports31c1,191$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.532,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed BC.Game Esports44c1,134$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50034146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9227…e497backed BC.Game Esports15c1,115$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.027540%30 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked BC.Game Esports47c1,042$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.0860953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked paiN56c1,027$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.8540950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed paiN74c983.08$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.8533452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BC.Game Esports12c958.92$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.974,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BC.Game Esports19c852.35$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.654,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1753…a647backed BC.Game Esports25c841.61$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked BC.Game Esports43c821.43$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35023249.1%114 W · 118 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed BC.Game Esports25c811.2$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x26d6…33ddbacked BC.Game Esports47c807.66$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.61457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed BC.Game Esports4c750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3042427.1%115 W · 309 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed BC.Game Esports22c750$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16554732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed paiN68c739.36$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.361,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed paiN52c705.73$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.7541649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked paiN55c668.21$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.739548.6%192 W · 203 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked paiN53c659.66$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.0425655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked paiN74c622.99$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.5414257%81 W · 61 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked paiN53c611.04$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.1976058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed paiN55c602$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.925147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked BC.Game Esports33c600$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed paiN57c599.97$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.9932346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked paiN55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4563541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked paiN52c524.56$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.0540140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked BC.Game Esports4c514$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5669624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed paiN53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23514650.7%74 W · 72 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe337…1f6fbacked BC.Game Esports45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22526341.1%108 W · 155 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked paiN53c499.99$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.998149.4%40 W · 41 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed paiN53c478.16$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.2616047.5%76 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked BC.Game Esports20c476.74$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.411,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BC.Game Esports12c448$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.855,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed BC.Game Esports31c445.02$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6733949%166 W · 173 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed BC.Game Esports29c441.47$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.951,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed BC.Game Esports35c430.18$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4068…aeb1backed BC.Game Esports39c424$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.442850%14 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed paiN51c407.02$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.4452951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed BC.Game Esports7c400$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.981,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed paiN79c391.43$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4613754%74 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c07…08c5backed paiN54c385.19$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.195438.9%21 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked paiN55c370.9$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.5555843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed paiN55c355.13$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.215740.8%64 W · 93 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed BC.Game Esports17c350.54$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603411.8%4 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-50.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed BC.Game Esports9c345$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.658324.1%20 W · 63 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed paiN53c328.87$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.5713738.7%53 W · 84 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed BC.Game Esports22c325.82$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.862,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd94f…ee62backed BC.Game Esports47c315.85$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.45520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed paiN52c301.9$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9180942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed paiN57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1291,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x616f…e14cbacked paiN56c299.67$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.192653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BC.Game Esports25c280$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed BC.Game Esports7c261.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.31,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed BC.Game Esports41c256$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9616461.6%101 W · 63 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed paiN40c253.95$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.3735953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x100d…6e46backed BC.Game Esports4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-66.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed BC.Game Esports22c247.64$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4829934.4%103 W · 196 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed BC.Game Esports12c237.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2911133.3%37 W · 74 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked paiN79c227$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9613850%69 W · 69 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked BC.Game Esports14c218.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1737441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked paiN79c216.41$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4515053.3%80 W · 70 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbc…b637backed BC.Game Esports47c215.5$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7362538.6%241 W · 384 L-16.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed paiN53c211.62$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6199148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed paiN73c205.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.481850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked paiN75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04db…7703backed BC.Game Esports15c199.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3041645.9%191 W · 225 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed BC.Game Esports26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030527.5%84 W · 221 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.