TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Nationals, Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$743,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$756,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $743,954 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ee1…dae8backed Nationals32c551,894$178,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373,315.076456.3%36 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Astros68c168,528$113,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,904.9486751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Astros68c147,490$100,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,293.25450%27 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Astros67c110,000$73,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,70022852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Astros68c88,552$60,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,149.81,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Nationals31c29,177$9,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,137.1260249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Astros65c28,389$18,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,424.212,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Nationals39c23,246$8,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,282.4118837.8%71 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Nationals31c20,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,80054051.1%276 W · 264 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Astros69c14,223$9,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,771.231,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Astros65c11,914$7,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,692.949,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Astros68c11,500$7,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8201,15349.2%567 W · 586 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Astros68c10,866$7,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,379.1938444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Astros44c10,322$4,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,563.8397950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals30c9,649$2,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,754.511,35850.8%690 W · 668 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros69c6,733$4,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,637.742,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Astros70c6,719$4,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,703.325248.1%25 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa362…f906backed Astros68c5,142$3,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.563951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Astros68c5,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40024553.5%131 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dae…f8b2backed Nationals37c4,073$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,577.2213352.6%70 W · 63 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Nationals30c4,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80038249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bd1…4e2bbacked Nationals33c4,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,680850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…fa1dbacked Astros69c3,631$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5006154.1%33 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Astros68c3,457$2,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350.7673352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Astros68c3,232$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,185.1132754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c95…0a3abacked Nationals31c3,211$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,215.5911555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c41…d50bbacked Nationals33c3,200$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick49cpaid+90.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3bbb…3607backed Nationals29c2,750$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.981266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+57.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Astros69c2,742$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.179749.5%48 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Astros70c2,315$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.3126949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Astros68c2,230$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.49843.9%43 W · 55 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Astros69c2,108$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.321,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a69…2f29backed Astros67c2,100$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x532f…83ccbacked Astros69c2,021$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.497548%36 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff1…3f4fbacked Astros23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4605834.5%20 W · 38 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3797…8150backed Astros67c1,900$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Astros62c1,803$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.6996133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Astros59c1,779$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.681,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Nationals34c1,742$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.7319239.1%75 W · 117 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Astros68c1,550$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05423545.1%106 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Astros66c1,549$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.155,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Nationals30c1,519$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.9571751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…f88ebacked Astros67c1,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Astros67c1,493$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Astros67c1,394$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.5956451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…3ea3backed Astros68c1,213$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.14757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Nationals31c1,200$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8281,01251.2%518 W · 494 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Nationals31c1,060$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.751,29347.3%611 W · 682 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Nationals61c1,025$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.257143.7%31 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Nationals23c1,000$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77033845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Nationals32c1,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68024248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd73b…70adbacked Astros70c930$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65114453.5%77 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaab0…7720backed Astros67c900$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6031154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Astros66c821.84$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.4111449.1%56 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8826…fe47backed Astros67c800$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Nationals32c799.96$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.9750843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nationals78c761.42$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.511,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Nationals31c757$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.3344443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Nationals32c707$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.7624547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2719…28ddbacked Astros64c687$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.3625364.4%163 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9823…02dbbacked Astros64c668$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.6214565.5%95 W · 50 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe259…b890backed Astros68c653$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.7216162.1%100 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6254…d8b7backed Astros70c652$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.1812868%87 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x534e…ecfebacked Astros68c652$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.9527458.8%161 W · 113 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cd3…1174backed Astros67c646$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.3519052.6%100 W · 90 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Astros64c629.84$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.311560%69 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Astros68c624$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.2934164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Astros68c623$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.6531547.3%149 W · 166 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Astros66c607.4$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.6711963.9%76 W · 43 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Astros69c600$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41432042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Astros70c571.51$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.216,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Astros54c483$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.6460052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Nationals36c471.99$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.4512037.5%45 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Astros68c438$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.841,40848.8%687 W · 721 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb09…0f04backed Nationals31c437.13$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.625429.6%16 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Nationals31c419.35$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.351,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Astros66c399.99$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.9913247.7%63 W · 69 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Astros36c398.97$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6328949.1%142 W · 147 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Astros67c363$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.291,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Astros70c318.07$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.6543247.2%204 W · 228 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Nationals32c313$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.8440548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbd…0f19backed Nationals30c310$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2172548%12 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Nationals33c303.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.251,21540.5%492 W · 723 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals33c299.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.992,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals31c299.78$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.21,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Astros67c291.04$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19599951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6966…7a8dbacked Astros68c290$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.24045%18 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros71c281.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals41c280.91$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.484,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Nationals72c278.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7947348.8%231 W · 242 L-22.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros72c277.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Nationals32c273.33$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7331244.2%138 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Nationals37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2728447.5%135 W · 149 L-20.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f39…27a5backed Nationals32c247.23$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.049345.2%42 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Astros68c224$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.3223545.5%107 W · 128 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Astros66c218.06$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0180680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Nationals71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5821656%121 W · 95 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Nationals32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13633852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb58…0e11backed Astros62c179.54$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4442955%236 W · 193 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee4…b575backed Nationals35c171.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4351245.1%231 W · 281 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.