Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa058b812c05e8f0322b2c05e575e6540067b97a3c4ab64a0abf5a55ce7baa74a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 705.99$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 33c | 651.71$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.85 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 66c | 600$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.57 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 473.21$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 387.36$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 14c | 287.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 31c | 243$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.67 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 63c | 204.4$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 26c | 202.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 19c | 194.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 63c | 157.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 135.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 127.52$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 69c | 105.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 29c | 103.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 102.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 93.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 35c | 92.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 91.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 84.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 39c | 69.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…96afbacked Yes | 53c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 49c | 66.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 62.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…b333backed Yes | 67c | 59.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…02babacked Yes | 28c | 57.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 57.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 49.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 46.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 67c | 46.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 45.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 31c | 42.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 29c | 41.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 62c | 41.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 71c | 38.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 74c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 24.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 57c | 23.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 21.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 20.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 20.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 70c | 15.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C or higher on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.