Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa27443d34355ea26d4bb904b87f4bfe5143c795d5eb4f1be36372a4fcadec4c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 21,530$8,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,612.2 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Team Yandex | 60c | 19,462$11,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,784.81 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Team Yandex | 80c | 6,005$4,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.08 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 2,720$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 17c | 2,032$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.55 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7d…0b89backed Team Yandex | 60c | 1,979$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 50cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 1,485$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.04 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 1,484$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.87 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 1,286$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.49 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…5299backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 1,142$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.18 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563b…774bbacked Team Yandex | 61c | 1,099$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.21 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 2c | 1,075$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ed…7103backed Team Yandex | 62c | 1,041$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.75 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 971.74$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.65 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x334e…26f1backed Team Yandex | 62c | 801.53$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere | 19c | 720.65$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 698.98$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.75 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed Team Yandex | 61c | 615$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.85 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Team Yandex | 60c | 502.38$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.38 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere | 6c | 495.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 399.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…98f9backed Team Yandex | 68c | 366.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed Team Yandex | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 317.08$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Yandex | 60c | 285.66$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Team Yandex | 61c | 264.26$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Yandex | 61c | 261.01$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Team Yandex | 61c | 260$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…acacbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 195.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Yandex | 60c | 180$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Yandex | 58c | 170$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b2…b787backed Team Yandex | 80c | 161.86$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…d2b5backed Natus Vincere | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d98…b8ffbacked Team Yandex | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked Team Yandex | 60c | 147.9$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 156 | 53.2%83 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Team Yandex | 60c | 118.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Team Yandex | 79c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 104.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed Team Yandex | 68c | 100.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 130 | 61.5%80 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Yandex | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed Natus Vincere | 17c | 88.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Natus Vincere | 13c | 87.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Natus Vincere | 22c | 81.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Yandex | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 69.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…551ebacked Natus Vincere | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 61.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…6c06backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 56.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 50.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Natus Vincere | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 454 | 57.5%261 W · 193 L | +39.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Team Yandex | 67c | 42.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Team Yandex | 72c | 41.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…eaaebacked Team Yandex | 59c | 33.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Team Yandex | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…1a6ebacked Team Yandex | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Team Yandex | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Team Yandex | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Team Yandex | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Yandex | 58c | 18.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.