Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2c05e38453af49912b3b9c8588e11583ccd05f936b469f1f6b504bed879098f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 1,889$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.35 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 685.63$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 34c | 292.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 267.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 253$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 73c | 248.84$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 223.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 48c | 221$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed No | 76c | 215.06$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 54c | 212.9$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 52c | 184.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 179.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 173$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 32c | 162.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 152.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 145.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 145.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 145.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 58c | 138$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 60c | 129.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 128.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 114$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 108.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 98.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 37c | 97.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 22c | 86.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 82.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 61c | 77.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 66c | 76.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 71.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 57c | 60.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed No | 63c | 60.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 56.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 54.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 52.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 52.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 43.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…af42backed No | 59c | 40.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 41c | 40.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2790…6331backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 43c | 32.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked No | 59c | 32.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 31.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 30.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 43c | 29.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 26.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…3d0fbacked No | 59c | 22.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 48c | 22.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 18.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.