Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3f5b921ed1862f335e9f071da67492c08757a7e1f26f8b6871390b5aafccb94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 11,567$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,037.25 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 61c | 3,940$2,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.97 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 34c | 3,934$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,610.14 | 857 | 48.5%416 W · 441 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Over | 40c | 3,242$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 39c | 2,564$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked Over | 6c | 2,012$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 61c | 1,702$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.16 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 15c | 1,694$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.48 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 60c | 1,403$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.25 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa42…2ff3backed Under | 9c | 1,035$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.64 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Over | 39c | 764.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Over | 40c | 745$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 233 | 50.2%117 W · 116 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 60c | 596.96$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.44 | 150 | 60.7%91 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 590.2$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.83 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Over | 38c | 446.16$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.15 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 436.51$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.78 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 59c | 410.02$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.53 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 60c | 362.81$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.12 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 42c | 349.51$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Over | 60c | 281.82$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Under | 7c | 281.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.51 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 27c | 279.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.96 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Over | 65c | 244.8$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 35c | 240.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Over | 78c | 200$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 41c | 197$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 301 | 43.9%132 W · 169 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 13c | 190.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.14 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…72f1backed Over | 40c | 188$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 12c | 177.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.88 | 320 | 49.1%157 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 60c | 168$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 399 | 48.4%193 W · 206 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Under | 7c | 163.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.01 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 54c | 139.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…5a08backed Over | 46c | 118.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Over | 18c | 113.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…b389backed Over | 63c | 96.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 69c | 83.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 20c | 74.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 33c | 60.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…e7e2backed Over | 42c | 48.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 42.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | -12.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 160 | 60%96 W · 64 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 60c | 32.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 119 | 69.7%83 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa62…4dccbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…ef42backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 67c | 26.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 313 | 59.4%186 W · 127 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…390cbacked Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc459…f29abacked Under | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.