TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Power Rangersof Power Rangers, L1ga Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$378,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$429,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $378,550 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 428 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed L1ga Team47c44,362$20,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,859.171,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Power Rangers69c24,844$17,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,808.6571454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Power Rangers42c17,887$7,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,405.0489741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Power Rangers49c14,399$6,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,412.11,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Power Rangers51c14,041$7,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,915.1156955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked L1ga Team42c14,009$5,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,886.2332549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Power Rangers49c9,789$4,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,976.7636248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Power Rangers61c9,008$5,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,521.9838855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Power Rangers46c7,266$3,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,924.7847646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked L1ga Team50c7,000$3,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,487.7495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked L1ga Team52c7,000$3,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,615.0380256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Power Rangers59c5,000$2,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Power Rangers50c4,935$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.841,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked L1ga Team50c4,682$2,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,362.8150850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Power Rangers55c4,393$2,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.8451049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Power Rangers53c3,113$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.1671143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked L1ga Team51c2,978$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.7399844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Power Rangers45c2,757$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.9316539.4%65 W · 100 L-0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed L1ga Team51c2,676$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.0560349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed L1ga Team42c2,584$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.146541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed L1ga Team53c2,556$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3506637.9%25 W · 41 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked L1ga Team52c2,542$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.4516746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed L1ga Team41c2,489$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02096557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team43c2,454$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.742,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a9…18a3backed L1ga Team48c2,444$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.72948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed L1ga Team57c2,392$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.1219148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed L1ga Team25c2,389$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.0769132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f30…8df6backed L1ga Team52c2,220$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.216555.2%91 W · 74 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Power Rangers56c2,059$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.333453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Power Rangers66c2,012$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.4154058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Power Rangers70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60056852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a30…34b1backed Power Rangers61c1,939$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.731275%9 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Power Rangers48c1,856$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.7679859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa396…6c5dbacked Power Rangers60c1,849$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.67333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed L1ga Team35c1,822$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.2133041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Power Rangers44c1,750$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.516725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Power Rangers45c1,735$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.9826843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed Power Rangers66c1,694$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.642053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked L1ga Team41c1,633$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.11,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked L1ga Team23c1,546$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.161,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Power Rangers48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7806445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed L1ga Team41c1,495$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.2518437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f56…d7dbbacked L1ga Team48c1,476$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.088538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed L1ga Team5c1,465$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.528035%28 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Power Rangers67c1,432$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.5891553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed L1ga Team53c1,367$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.1418152.5%95 W · 86 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked Power Rangers62c1,328$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.1814446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed L1ga Team52c1,326$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.9543344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed L1ga Team50c1,311$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.525935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed L1ga Team57c1,270$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.3815848.1%76 W · 82 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed L1ga Team39c1,264$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.1527636.2%100 W · 176 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Power Rangers60c1,241$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.431,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked Power Rangers56c1,200$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.2113647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Power Rangers58c1,188$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.91,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Power Rangers47c1,159$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.0229240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed L1ga Team44c1,142$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed Power Rangers70c1,120$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.528469%58 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed L1ga Team55c1,113$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.1820767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Power Rangers51c1,089$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.2335151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Power Rangers42c1,085$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.2834442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed L1ga Team52c1,079$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.2993546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Power Rangers46c1,069$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.4988539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Power Rangers67c1,052$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.422461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccce…58dabacked Power Rangers53c1,050$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.71580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+60.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Power Rangers48c1,039$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.1915150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked L1ga Team40c1,032$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.6641242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed L1ga Team29c1,012$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.291,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2d8…f6b6backed L1ga Team54c1,002$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.852748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Power Rangers50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50057449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed L1ga Team1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked L1ga Team46c999.99$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46044149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked Power Rangers55c986.77$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.7713142.7%56 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed L1ga Team43c972.01$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.9612350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8875…7548backed L1ga Team53c950$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.56253.2%33 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Power Rangers67c941.99$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.4634561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x910e…29bcbacked L1ga Team54c925$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.55147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked L1ga Team53c924.44$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.9861456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb89…c7ebbacked Power Rangers76c918.75$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.432450%12 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5480…b38cbacked L1ga Team53c914.93$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.973135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed L1ga Team63c911.4$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.1813145%59 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed L1ga Team12c884.41$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6612447.6%59 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed L1ga Team60c883.98$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.8710138.6%39 W · 62 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Power Rangers61c874.14$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.4547046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Power Rangers46c869.57$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.5712740.2%51 W · 76 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Power Rangers55c850.41$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.9630667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed L1ga Team25c850$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20951544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Power Rangers44c841.97$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.5135737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Power Rangers55c841.02$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.469954.5%54 W · 45 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Power Rangers72c831.14$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.3825150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6f9…d334backed Power Rangers58c774.82$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed Power Rangers67c744.65$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.8216058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Power Rangers54c744$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.7379341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed L1ga Team45c727.54$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.7660251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked L1ga Team33c713.19$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9223736.7%87 W · 150 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked L1ga Team73c682.04$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.619344.1%41 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked L1ga Team50c618.68$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.410653.8%57 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd206…bd2abacked L1ga Team44c612.4$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.1615957.2%91 W · 68 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Power Rangers42c609.8$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.81,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed L1ga Team21c608.36$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9854246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Power Rangers80c600$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.