Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55362f03cd567a60596fa3c1ceba7472efc999fd29817de2c41f89d1c758cab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 47c | 2,668$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.86 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 43c | 1,105$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.6 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 49c | 951.82$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 54c | 370.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 58c | 327.76$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.26 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 55c | 215.44$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 201.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 173.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 54c | 159.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 158.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 40c | 136.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed No | 46c | 133.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 37c | 127$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 46c | 116$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c6…1f41backed Yes | 51c | 111.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 65c | 111.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 45c | 109.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed Yes | 64c | 108.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 55c | 102$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 45c | 95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 53c | 94.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 56c | 89.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 56c | 84.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…b30ebacked No | 57c | 83.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 80.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 40c | 73.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 69.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 54c | 68.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 62.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 60.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 59.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…96a8backed Yes | 66c | 54.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 56c | 53.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 32c | 49.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 45.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 42.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 65c | 41.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 40.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 52c | 38.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 38c | 36.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 34.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 44c | 33.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 76c | 33.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 56c | 31.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 60c | 30.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 29.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 60c | 26.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 55c | 25.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…cbc4backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 62c | 24.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 59c | 21.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 56c | 18.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.