Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd205ba31c1d95f8088c38c600c7855ef5929803524893302c0bf52bd59d20fe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 33c | 1,736$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.86 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 385.18$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 68c | 350$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 313$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 292.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 25c | 276.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 68c | 269.08$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 215.56$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…2274backed Yes | 35c | 185.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 181.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 68c | 164$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 163.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 157.18$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 70c | 144.59$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 30c | 141.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 28c | 132$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 129$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 19c | 122$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 27c | 118.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 113.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 77c | 103.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 15c | 102.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 25c | 101.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 26c | 78.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 77.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 67c | 75.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 70c | 73.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 28c | 72.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 25c | 71.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…3aacbacked No | 66c | 71.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 71.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 37c | 65.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 68c | 61.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…3eb7backed Yes | 30c | 57.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 24c | 57.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 54.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 74c | 53.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 70c | 49.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 42.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 42.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 26c | 39.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 37.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 35c | 33.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 32c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 28.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 26.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked No | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 24.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 67c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee6…22e9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 19.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 73c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 73c | 14.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.