Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5771a23a73e0159bcf396f727a9bf6a590063fae1ce0013f1d8af7d8c26f943
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 23c | 70,894$16,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,342.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 77c | 22,029$16,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,030.93 | 2,564 | 39.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 78c | 11,375$8,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,487.91 | 514 | 42.2%217 W · 297 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 76c | 6,040$4,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.43 | 310 | 45.2%140 W · 170 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 72c | 4,987$3,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.23 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24e…1be8backed Under | 32c | 3,000$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 68c | 2,844$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 21c | 2,461$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 25c | 2,176$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.95 | 480 | 30.6%147 W · 333 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 80c | 1,962$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.52 | 860 | 32.7%281 W · 579 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 72c | 1,937$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.29 | 1,024 | 44.4%455 W · 569 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 17c | 1,862$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…b09bbacked Over | 72c | 1,400$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Under | 18c | 999.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -90%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 76c | 853.03$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c57…a7debacked Under | 16c | 699.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 15c | 592.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 18c | 344.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 433 | 45%195 W · 238 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…80b5backed Under | 30c | 313$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 7c | 278$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 16c | 268.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1,691 | 45%761 W · 930 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 76c | 262.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 80c | 256.41$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Over | 72c | 196.4$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Under | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2c…b187backed Over | 67c | 144.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f5…9bcfbacked Over | 72c | 143.66$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…6fa9backed Under | 21c | 122.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd4…d574backed Under | 22c | 120.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb447…62ebbacked Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 80c | 83.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 3,288 | 42.6%1,400 W · 1,888 L | -74.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 71c | 70.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 18c | 69.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…e7debacked Over | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…b737backed Under | 17c | 63.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Over | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…d4eabacked Under | 22c | 44.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 79c | 31.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 75c | 22.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 554 | 59%327 W · 227 L | +25.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Over | 77c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 234 | 46.6%109 W · 125 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 71c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 5.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.