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Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$127,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,395 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x821d…cf16backed Under40c10,513$4,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,219.334129.3%12 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under48c9,722$4,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,62531045.2%140 W · 170 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under45c9,635$4,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,318.2248030.6%147 W · 333 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a1…7622backed Under44c7,777$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,439.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x122b…ac59backed Over40c7,225$2,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,355.471330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under32c6,479$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.298637.2%32 W · 54 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under55c5,068$2,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,781.532,56439.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over50c4,600$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3004055%22 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x948a…e059backed Over68c3,991$2,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over64c3,717$2,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.542832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over51c2,638$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.0251442.2%217 W · 297 L-1.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe84a…5baabacked Over44c2,440$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.39560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…b09bbacked Over46c2,220$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.8540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x712e…0485backed Over46c2,129$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa24e…1be8backed Over56c2,089$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.46728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Over67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6605552.7%29 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over65c1,974$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.1873151.7%378 W · 353 L+25.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2393…d54dbacked Over51c1,930$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+88.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe337…4ad6backed Over64c1,858$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.88862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under36c1,747$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.926139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under33c1,563$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.1843345%195 W · 238 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over48c1,550$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8061936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0011…4333backed Over60c1,402$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.73825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-63.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb697…5d0cbacked Under35c1,329$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under32c1,250$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40034146%157 W · 184 L+1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c1…6b32backed Over68c1,218$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.73887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Under38c1,173$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed Under1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under34c999.94$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.3167145.6%306 W · 365 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9637…3050backed Over68c922.32$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff3…e2c5backed Under40c836.94$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.78450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c9…d8c1backed Over48c770$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.45100%5 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+180%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5b8e…8fc3backed Over64c766.84$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over66c757.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.5820143.8%88 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Under32c687.5$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over67c643.99$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.0330954.7%169 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9900…5cc9backed Under4c640$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over67c629.81$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.5614250%71 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8762…0d85backed Over45c620.52$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.292100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under49c575.26$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.43938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked Over66c559.51$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.235100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under32c512$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.841442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18517155.6%95 W · 76 L-0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Over55c490.53$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.754100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+169.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Over69c411.75$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.64475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+64.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over67c390$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.71233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Under62c366.08$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked Under61c364.57$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.3920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over61c360.68$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.68475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Over52c328.96$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.815100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Under29c328.44$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.613327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa209…ffbebacked Over67c302.12$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.181181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick62cpaid+57.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17b9…9bf6backed Over68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over63c290.4$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4512661.1%77 W · 49 L+20.5wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+46.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Over67c269.07$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eba…33bdbacked Under37c265.97$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over64c250.49$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1945055.3%249 W · 201 L+22.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over65c239.91$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.074100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Over46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.39560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+58.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56d8…1ccebacked Under39c205.15$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over68c201$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.324148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Over68c200$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Under32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e7…9461backed Over64c196.89$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.234100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd4f…a4d3backed Over64c186.69$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.386100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1985…51abbacked Over64c176.8$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd4…d574backed Under38c161.29$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a4…8d2ebacked Over62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f2e…6da4backed Over66c160$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick57cpaid+57.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under38c159$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.44946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0962…6e40backed Over63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over67c156.23$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.812634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under39c154$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.457635.5%27 W · 49 L-8.8wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa87d…ff4dbacked Over65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under51c152.22$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0915055.3%83 W · 67 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed Over66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.524100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x952e…4743backed Over66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Under40c150.48$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3696…69cebacked Over64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546071.7%43 W · 17 L+8.1wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8234855.5%193 W · 155 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over67c148.5$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4916664.5%107 W · 59 L+29.1wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+49.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x488c…a2dabacked Over68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.066254.8%34 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over68c138.2$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2216457.9%95 W · 69 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+24.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over56c136.1$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.323548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under47c134.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.862045%9 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under56c134.93$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.061,31540.6%534 W · 781 L-44.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over61c117.82$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.529652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over66c117.39$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.477133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over56c110$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed Over65c105.61$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.962157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under35c102.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5013342.9%57 W · 76 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fc…097ebacked Over55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81ea…8b9abacked Over68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ed6…2322backed Over52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Under40c92.23$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.89616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7541…963ebacked Over65c91.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.714100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+87.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf887…db68backed Under45c77.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+52.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd439…21d3backed Over66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb7c…03f9backed Over68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.