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Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, VfB Stuttgart
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$208,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$251,558

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd65…ee96backed FC Bayern München63c39,532$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,531.694100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed VfB Stuttgart37c18,275$6,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,737.120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked FC Bayern München62c13,494$8,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,139.832832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4a7…dc87backed VfB Stuttgart37c12,880$4,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,765.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed FC Bayern München64c12,206$7,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,417.447133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed VfB Stuttgart32c11,959$3,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,777.394129.3%12 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed VfB Stuttgart37c8,971$3,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,352.6467145.6%306 W · 365 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed VfB Stuttgart38c8,641$3,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,260.8773151.7%378 W · 353 L+25.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked VfB Stuttgart49c7,694$3,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,805.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed VfB Stuttgart42c7,178$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.9148030.6%147 W · 333 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed VfB Stuttgart35c7,053$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,443.7351442.2%217 W · 297 L-1.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed VfB Stuttgart37c6,621$2,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.6630954.7%169 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed FC Bayern München66c6,453$4,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,225.1131045.2%140 W · 170 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed VfB Stuttgart37c5,544$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.34520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed FC Bayern München63c4,086$2,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.948637.2%32 W · 54 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked VfB Stuttgart36c3,750$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.543345%195 W · 238 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked VfB Stuttgart37c3,736$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.322245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+50.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a92…3c67backed FC Bayern München63c3,582$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed VfB Stuttgart37c3,369$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.121233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked FC Bayern München63c3,337$2,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf40a…ea0abacked VfB Stuttgart38c2,788$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.54450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked VfB Stuttgart37c2,729$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.641,69145%761 W · 930 L+6.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FC Bayern München50c2,577$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.042,56439.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c7…cd28backed FC Bayern München63c2,023$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed VfB Stuttgart38c1,988$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.1827445.3%124 W · 150 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7391…5375backed FC Bayern München63c1,905$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+95.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FC Bayern München63c1,819$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.9514250%71 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3170…c6a0backed FC Bayern München61c1,776$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed FC Bayern München63c1,657$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.094148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e6…ad16backed FC Bayern München63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed VfB Stuttgart37c1,278$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.8234146%157 W · 184 L+1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x208c…6b98backed FC Bayern München63c1,252$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.24837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked VfB Stuttgart48c1,230$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.563560%21 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked FC Bayern München59c1,141$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked FC Bayern München63c1,024$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3841442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed FC Bayern München62c1,017$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.632975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc581…0f24backed VfB Stuttgart48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x546b…1582backed FC Bayern München63c999.99$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3702100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked VfB Stuttgart39c999.99$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.99175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.22per pick28cpaid-90%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed FC Bayern München54c934.21$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.434100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked FC Bayern München61c905.34$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.39520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-67.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked VfB Stuttgart37c800$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34c…2e29backed FC Bayern München63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.653100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+72.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a47…cfbbbacked FC Bayern München63c635.84$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.262853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed FC Bayern München66c616.04$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.3554540.9%223 W · 322 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked VfB Stuttgart37c604.51$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.6715055.3%83 W · 67 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed FC Bayern München57c521.92$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.49652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xace7…462abacked FC Bayern München58c516.95$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9817…5ff2backed FC Bayern München58c514.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked FC Bayern München63c509.42$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.495100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked FC Bayern München57c495.54$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.082045%9 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c2f…9765backed FC Bayern München63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+95.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked VfB Stuttgart25c469.74$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.173327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e03…8b79backed FC Bayern München63c444.44$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x333f…3cd6backed FC Bayern München61c431.26$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0962…6e40backed FC Bayern München61c409.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7a5…38d8backed FC Bayern München63c407.53$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked VfB Stuttgart25c392.29$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.931526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-56.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ee4…8c98backed FC Bayern München58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.831241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67f8…6f42backed FC Bayern München59c340.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd4f…a4d3backed FC Bayern München63c340.33$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.776100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xefa1…8a16backed FC Bayern München61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.874100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+80.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36b3…fc6cbacked FC Bayern München62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed FC Bayern München62c320.96$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2613…12bdbacked FC Bayern München62c320$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+106.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed FC Bayern München65c320$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4735237.2%131 W · 221 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked FC Bayern München63c310$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+50.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed VfB Stuttgart39c307.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.311,10850.5%560 W · 548 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed VfB Stuttgart34c266.16$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6786032.7%281 W · 579 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ad…089abacked VfB Stuttgart38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82fb…0b6ebacked FC Bayern München60c250.25$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.253100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+86%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1058…01c1backed FC Bayern München66c245$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa87d…ff4dbacked FC Bayern München62c241.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked FC Bayern München51c220.5$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.283548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7523…68a0backed FC Bayern München62c206.75$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.76650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed VfB Stuttgart42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843,28842.6%1,400 W · 1,888 L-74.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed VfB Stuttgart37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9133…20acbacked VfB Stuttgart49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2889…edcfbacked FC Bayern München63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed VfB Stuttgart37c186.8$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed FC Bayern München66c182.07$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.625100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ecc…415abacked FC Bayern München61c164.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe904…44e9backed VfB Stuttgart39c163.42$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f8f…aebfbacked FC Bayern München62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked FC Bayern München63c160.13$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2511160.4%67 W · 44 L+13.9wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed FC Bayern München63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.734100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbae1…d8abbacked FC Bayern München63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…1b9cbacked FC Bayern München63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.732673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed FC Bayern München58c149.98$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed VfB Stuttgart43c140$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.24946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5144…549cbacked FC Bayern München62c129.03$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked VfB Stuttgart39c128.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked FC Bayern München64c124$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed VfB Stuttgart39c118.11$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.462250%11 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+36.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed FC Bayern München67c113$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.814100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe977…fcd8backed FC Bayern München60c110$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-41%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed VfB Stuttgart14c104.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked VfB Stuttgart37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51513.3%2 W · 13 L-5.6wins-0.37per pick51cpaid-72.5%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked FC Bayern München64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363966.7%26 W · 13 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked VfB Stuttgart37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.