Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x536c7493b39c988a401e0bee812052879e9036f46ff748b38583211822d331a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 812.1$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.34 | 480 | 30.6%147 W · 333 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 41c | 751.79$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.07 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 32c | 684.71$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.79 | 860 | 32.7%281 W · 579 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 64c | 417.43$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…101dbacked Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Over | 68c | 184.4$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 33c | 153.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 67c | 143.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 61c | 143$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 545 | 40.9%223 W · 322 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 67c | 108.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +8.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 67c | 96.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 66c | 75.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa08e…70f0backed Over | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 34c | 47.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 671 | 45.6%306 W · 365 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Over | 61c | 45.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…4ab1backed Under | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 73c | 38.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 66c | 32.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x603b…5339backed Over | 66c | 30.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 34c | 30.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 66c | 28.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0d…57dabacked Over | 68c | 27.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…9d93backed Over | 52c | 22.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Under | 48c | 22.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…7595backed Over | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Over | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…e692backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München O/U 2.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 5.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.