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Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,528
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,163

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,528 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x821d…cf16backed Under57c5,065$2,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.574129.3%12 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over44c3,700$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.672,56439.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe337…4ad6backed Under53c3,352$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x425b…18f1backed Over62c2,845$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,763.73425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24073151.7%378 W · 353 L+25.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under38c1,940$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.051233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under38c1,907$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.230954.7%169 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over62c1,724$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.578637.2%32 W · 54 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under38c1,571$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.8986032.7%281 W · 579 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…b09bbacked Over62c1,443$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.51540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40b9…a596backed Under57c1,443$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed Over47c1,436$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6752075%15 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over48c1,081$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.529652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8806…2e83backed Under58c919.98$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.391040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8191…da72backed Under74c887.83$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff3…e2c5backed Under60c799.99$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98f2…65dcbacked Over63c778.89$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.71346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-30.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under45c656.66$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.5548030.6%147 W · 333 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a1…30d1backed Over43c656$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5e…9d93backed Over45c656$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.11450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over61c586$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.4639148.1%188 W · 203 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0011…4333backed Over49c570.27$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.17825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-63.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa991…0935backed Over45c554.89$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under68c533.72$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.452433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-32.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Over61c492.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Over47c488.98$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.481931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x308b…b223backed Over54c462.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over45c435$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.150143.5%218 W · 283 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed01…83a8backed Over47c410.2$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.79911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under55c409.16$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.17560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06a…101dbacked Over40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over45c388.89$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1759252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+58.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under67c374.34$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.332045%9 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under39c364.11$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.4767145.6%306 W · 365 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under38c343.74$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.1234146%157 W · 184 L+1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf374…0178backed Over47c341.7$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d6…6562backed Over55c283.65$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over59c271$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.212832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Under58c258.79$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.794100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Under40c250.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.619455.2%107 W · 87 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb6…15cdbacked Over50c232.08$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Over45c220$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+58.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under40c219.24$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.441,10850.5%560 W · 548 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0f…1366backed Over51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Over47c191.49$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over46c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.535237.2%131 W · 221 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69c0…30f9backed Over62c145.32$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8aa…7b9bbacked Over62c143.87$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed6…2322backed Over37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over62c123.5$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.177133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33ae…cf9ebacked Over44c113.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b5…df9bbacked Over41c109.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Over59c99.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9914926.8%40 W · 109 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd170…a9d9backed Over39c99.98$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b1…8e7dbacked Under44c88.66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over53c85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.355962.7%37 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5630…6ca8backed Over62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fc…2b03backed Over62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b9…0a8bbacked Over46c72.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Under45c70.71$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.683327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d1…dc9fbacked Over29c65.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over44c62.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.540259%237 W · 165 L+28.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x677e…4a1fbacked Over40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf4…40fabacked Over55c59.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.995563.6%35 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over44c53.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.313450%17 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a00…59e2backed Over47c53.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd924…7bc2backed Over48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe748…c645backed Under57c51.61$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e9…99e6backed Over42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed Over77c42.64$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f1…5b7fbacked Over59c42.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea77…4edabacked Under49c41.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8325…0ac8backed Over62c41.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Over37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.85223.1%12 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x833c…ac24backed Under39c38.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.481145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba6c…dad3backed Over48c34.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Over62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203557.1%20 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under41c30.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8763152.3%330 W · 301 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over59c27.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1814250%71 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x853e…f16abacked Over55c27.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+56.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x13a0…e8b9backed Under38c27.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over47c26.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d2d…b69dbacked Over43c24.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Over61c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.64944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed Over46c23.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5433…9f87backed Over58c20.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.64746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad6…eab6backed Under62c16.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.44812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.39per pick52cpaid-79.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.