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Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,155
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,155 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over29c1,368$396 inLost-$396.123938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4944…e4c7backed Under70c714.29$500 inWon+$214.291973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under69c564.74$392 inWon+$173.1967145.6%306 W · 365 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under67c564.45$378 inWon+$186.364129.3%12 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over18c421.5$76 inLost-$75.8348030.6%147 W · 333 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd360…2eabbacked Under69c360.87$249 inWon+$111.872100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+139.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under69c256$177 inWon+$79.361442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over35c157.09$54 inLost-$54.2586032.7%281 W · 579 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Over33c151.52$50 inLost-$501838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f6…4892backed Over34c145.89$50 inLost-$506943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under70c107.5$75 inWon+$32.499652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Under79c100$79 inWon+$21.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under73c75.84$55 inWon+$20.552045%9 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under68c71.12$49 inWon+$22.472657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under65c60.77$40 inWon+$21.279560%57 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Under66c52.58$34 inWon+$18.13327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Under67c51.52$35 inWon+$17944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Under66c39$26 inWon+$13.263560%21 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc3…384ebacked Under67c29.85$20 inWon+$9.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Under66c25$17 inWon+$8.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under66c25$17 inWon+$8.55962.7%37 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb74…6a46backed Under69c24.9$17 inWon+$7.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Under71c20.11$14 inWon+$5.837133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.