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Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,201
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,201 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xace7…462abacked Over45c1,099$500 inLost-$500450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under54c589.22$319 inWon+$270.5786032.7%281 W · 579 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under56c509.4$286 inWon+$223.273938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Over43c284.31$122 inLost-$121.914129.3%12 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under55c217.99$119 inWon+$99.1967145.6%306 W · 365 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Under58c187.04$109 inWon+$78.141369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90f…4148backed Over47c143.34$67 inLost-$67.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Under53c139.94$74 inWon+$65.77540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd924…7bc2backed Over48c104.17$50 inLost-$50650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under55c61.11$34 inWon+$27.52657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under55c38.38$21 inWon+$17.27771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x403c…7f06backed Under55c20$11 inWon+$9944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.