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Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$424,558
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$472,523

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,558 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd202…8973backed Over49c41,055$20,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,938.05650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under49c32,025$15,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,807.3748030.6%147 W · 333 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Over48c26,042$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,541.674100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4d6…308abacked Over45c25,569$11,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,159.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under41c24,110$9,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,790.184129.3%12 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under47c21,403$10,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,030.0631045.2%140 W · 170 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde31…df79backed Over44c19,987$8,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,292.723100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+188.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under49c13,628$6,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,675.651442.2%217 W · 297 L-1.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6195…b9e3backed Under56c11,250$6,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,284.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under55c9,803$5,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,372.7867145.6%306 W · 365 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under7c9,334$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.542433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-32.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under51c7,980$4,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,052.6315055.3%83 W · 67 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under54c6,145$3,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,290.5373151.7%378 W · 353 L+25.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e97…8ffabacked Under4c6,000$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.6440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2627…fa13backed Over50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0002100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+131.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under54c5,973$3,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,227.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-42.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ed…9f79backed Under53c5,660$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under17c5,555$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.6135237.2%131 W · 221 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Under52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick48cpaid-74.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8191…da72backed Under33c4,959$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over48c4,876$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.814250%71 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca7…39dbbacked Under32c4,758$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Under53c4,528$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over43c4,515$1,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.552245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+50.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34a1…7622backed Under63c4,420$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,771.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under54c4,141$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.5330954.7%169 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Under21c3,062$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.573327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa24e…1be8backed Over42c3,000$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.09728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46cd…6b95backed Over67c2,948$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Under51c2,861$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.151421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ab6…fad4backed Under54c2,560$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec57…0fa7backed Under2c2,398$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Under57c2,262$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.071369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Over33c2,188$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.22650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under7c2,148$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.15560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under54c2,075$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.551233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under56c2,048$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.761442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Over47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0605552.7%29 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Under52c1,937$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.84650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122b…ac59backed Over57c1,858$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.621330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Under57c1,754$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.782733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2220…1a0fbacked Over58c1,711$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.53540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x611a…c8e9backed Over60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+84.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea8…b821backed Under4c1,625$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.36616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-68.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under18c1,439$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.026139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under51c1,287$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.9486032.7%281 W · 579 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x482a…c85dbacked Under9c1,262$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…3dddbacked Under70c1,134$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked Under53c1,115$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.7340%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c57…a7debacked Under54c1,100$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-80.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ea…9c73backed Under20c1,021$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d0…2fefbacked Under23c1,013$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5508557.6%49 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5503256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52039346.3%182 W · 211 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf67…ee8ebacked Under1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under53c943$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7939148.1%188 W · 203 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Under55c939.77$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.88175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.22per pick28cpaid-90%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5fcfbacked Under12c927.48$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb3a…d1ccbacked Under22c871.2$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.37520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over64c847.67$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.689652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over72c757.16$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.653548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over47c743.39$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.77133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc66a…ed6abacked Over69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.642572%18 W · 7 L+5.2wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+50.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under51c699.98$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.997650%38 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over43c671.34$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x059c…050ebacked Under26c612.4$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Under5c542.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.691428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-59.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Under52c520$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.44148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over43c513.66$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.66475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd63d…75a1backed Under41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b0…180dbacked Under50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under56c499.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9914862.2%92 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa209…ffbebacked Over58c492.98$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.381181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick62cpaid+57.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Over28c481.48$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.48560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+58.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f28…ff9abacked Over50c464$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over58c442.66$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.784100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Over48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.672119%4 W · 17 L-6.2wins-0.30per pick49cpaid-58.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x9f19…2e23backed Under16c413.88$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over71c408.45$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4519455.2%107 W · 87 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Over49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67d6…6562backed Over68c405.21$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.67850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0011…4333backed Under58c397.86$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.91825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-63.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Under54c369$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed01…83a8backed Under4c366.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.68911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over39c355.24$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.2245055.3%249 W · 201 L+22.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03c9…d8c1backed Over42c336.26$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.035100%5 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+180%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa0e7…9461backed Over60c329.78$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.944100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Under61c321.2$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.933860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa678…bc50backed Under52c320.75$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over33c318$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.2748858.8%287 W · 201 L+45.4wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x17c0…87dfbacked Under55c293.33$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9133…20acbacked Under60c285$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c09…f399backed Over46c277$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.584100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under56c261$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.072832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d6a…4adabacked Over79c252.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.753855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0f…0e48backed Under19c250$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over44c243.83$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.572045%9 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb74f…acbbbacked Under42c238.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9306…bc66backed Under62c226.96$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.