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Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$243,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$247,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,887 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over37c21,500$8,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,468.262,56439.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under68c16,303$11,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,108.0448030.6%147 W · 333 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a8f…e5f5backed Over31c16,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+226.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under58c15,870$9,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,236.244129.3%12 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e16…a795backed Under70c14,286$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0002420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under72c9,599$6,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,883.0731045.2%140 W · 170 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe337…4ad6backed Over64c9,159$5,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,336.41862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed Over30c9,128$2,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,389.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+185.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Over43c6,749$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,828.641145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under64c6,053$3,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,857.84450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Under73c5,184$3,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,767.184148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over27c5,087$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,711.4951442.2%217 W · 297 L-1.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under56c4,738$2,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,646.292433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-32.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over25c4,515$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,392.8635237.2%131 W · 221 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over30c3,372$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,376.5367145.6%306 W · 365 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed Under70c3,244$2,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-71.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over31c2,903$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.1786032.7%281 W · 579 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x611a…c8e9backed Over26c2,760$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+84.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under55c2,703$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.626139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over29c2,528$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,788.530954.7%169 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde31…df79backed Over26c2,322$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.043100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+188.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over30c2,095$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.351233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over30c2,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.9973151.7%378 W · 353 L+25.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2220…1a0fbacked Over36c1,922$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.84540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd63d…75a1backed Over39c1,900$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed Over47c1,781$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.124100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d1…c0f2backed Under80c1,750$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over32c1,635$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.752045%9 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd202…1ef5backed Under4c1,567$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.33812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcd…abb2backed Under6c1,548$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa24e…1be8backed Under47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21bc…6455backed Under70c1,429$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6055…5fdebacked Under71c1,408$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122b…ac59backed Under32c1,293$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.311330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea8…b821backed Under3c1,250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-68.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over38c1,237$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.343938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Over29c1,158$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.912100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+148.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb697…5d0cbacked Over28c1,157$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over33c1,060$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.799652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x482a…c85dbacked Under79c1,011$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under72c1,001$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.371442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Under73c994.87$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.26175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.22per pick28cpaid-90%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under6c978.01$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed01…83a8backed Under4c937.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa209…ffbebacked Over33c899.16$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.161181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick62cpaid+57.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x059c…050ebacked Under65c871.2$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46cd…6b95backed Over44c826.33$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed Over64c707.94$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.942075%15 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03c9…d8c1backed Over20c690.19$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.955100%5 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+180%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under26c674.91$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under60c607.07$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.2515055.3%83 W · 67 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under73c600$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43814862.2%92 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9618…77e6backed Under6c565.66$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Under56c519.47$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.223327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed Over37c501.2$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.13757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+53.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb76b…d1f0backed Under10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e7…9461backed Over49c484.55$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.94100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76bc…fccabacked Under29c464.81$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-57.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd360…2eabbacked Over30c433.33$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+139.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked Under45c416.89$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x584a…8b8abacked Over40c375.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over55c330.51$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.633450%17 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Under54c328.21$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1762748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over28c323$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.562832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafd0…ebd0backed Over24c315.27$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+194.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc96…2791backed Under71c309.86$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40b3…bf2ebacked Under4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under70c289.76$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8327445.3%124 W · 150 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbfc…e3eebacked Over30c288$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7b…9ab9backed Under73c273.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over21c271.35$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.911,31540.6%534 W · 781 L-44.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d0…2fefbacked Under55c263.35$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca7…39dbbacked Under13c259.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4502…9eedbacked Over36c256.95$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.121145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5c…ab50backed Under74c256$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e49…e7debacked Over18c255.63$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.162475%18 W · 6 L+6.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+92.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over51c253.01$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.2650143.5%218 W · 283 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc046…d8f0backed Under4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under69c249.92$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.451513.3%2 W · 13 L-5.6wins-0.37per pick51cpaid-72.5%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe8aa…e4d1backed Over20c240$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb541…8cf1backed Over30c239.66$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+232.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over42c238.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.3220143.8%88 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f2e…6da4backed Over42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick57cpaid+57.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over38c229.8$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.4854540.9%223 W · 322 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Over38c226.5$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Under61c223.31$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.693548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4626…d40bbacked Under77c215$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.55366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0050…336cbacked Under71c214.1$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under60c211$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.24850%24 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06a…101dbacked Under64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Over31c199.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.991233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under57c193.76$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.526553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3303…9895backed Under77c161.17$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf67…ee8ebacked Under55c160$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0011…4333backed Under77c154.74$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.92825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-63.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Over25c153.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.582556%14 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Under65c150.6$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.89425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7249…f5dabacked Under10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd924…7bc2backed Over37c144.54$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.54650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f19…2e23backed Under77c142.86$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.