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Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Bayern Münchenof FC Bayern München, VfB Stuttgart
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$286,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$347,710

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,468 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed VfB Stuttgart58c61,423$35,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,565.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed FC Bayern München43c58,140$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,139.534100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed VfB Stuttgart57c29,470$16,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,798.013948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed VfB Stuttgart56c25,293$14,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,242.054129.3%12 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4572…5e86backed FC Bayern München42c23,013$9,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,347.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed FC Bayern München42c15,328$6,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,860.0431045.2%140 W · 170 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3708…b397backed FC Bayern München42c14,240$5,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,259.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed FC Bayern München41c14,000$5,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,259.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed FC Bayern München42c9,690$4,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,620.353154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed VfB Stuttgart60c9,027$5,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,460.6348030.6%147 W · 333 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed FC Bayern München42c8,850$3,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1332100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+185.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FC Bayern München42c7,003$2,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,052.0751442.2%217 W · 297 L-1.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed VfB Stuttgart58c6,169$3,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,578.088637.2%32 W · 54 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ed…9f79backed VfB Stuttgart58c5,172$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed VfB Stuttgart57c3,505$2,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,008.09540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-42.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd5a…2351backed FC Bayern München42c3,363$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed VfB Stuttgart58c3,270$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.7630954.7%169 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed VfB Stuttgart57c2,851$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x208c…6b98backed FC Bayern München42c2,847$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70a6…a2ebbacked VfB Stuttgart62c2,801$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.5120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed VfB Stuttgart60c2,258$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.081369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed VfB Stuttgart57c2,250$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.3573151.7%378 W · 353 L+25.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed VfB Stuttgart57c2,091$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.521233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed VfB Stuttgart59c1,838$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.017133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked VfB Stuttgart58c1,500$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8702759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed VfB Stuttgart58c1,313$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.4267145.6%306 W · 365 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed VfB Stuttgart57c1,250$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.534146%157 W · 184 L+1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked VfB Stuttgart57c1,250$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.543345%195 W · 238 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc151…2501backed FC Bayern München42c1,190$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.48683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+65.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked FC Bayern München49c1,082$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.482045%9 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked VfB Stuttgart52c1,019$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.253327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked VfB Stuttgart59c999.99$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.99175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.22per pick28cpaid-90%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed FC Bayern München42c975.7$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.8927445.3%124 W · 150 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed VfB Stuttgart57c799.99$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4561844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf055…02b5backed FC Bayern München43c697.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.671741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked FC Bayern München40c670$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed VfB Stuttgart56c664.37$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.2986032.7%281 W · 579 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed FC Bayern München49c589.64$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.634100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c2f…9765backed FC Bayern München43c581.4$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+95.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34c…2e29backed FC Bayern München43c581.4$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+72.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed VfB Stuttgart62c566.48$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FC Bayern München41c565.43$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.4814250%71 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2613…12bdbacked FC Bayern München40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3002100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+106.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked VfB Stuttgart13c389.67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-56.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked FC Bayern München43c370$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed FC Bayern München42c345$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.14148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ad…089abacked VfB Stuttgart59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed VfB Stuttgart40c319.95$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.79652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed VfB Stuttgart59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17714862.2%92 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed VfB Stuttgart58c299.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.511,10850.5%560 W · 548 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked FC Bayern München36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7391…5375backed FC Bayern München43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+95.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x541c…a7ecbacked FC Bayern München43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.56850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb581…1b9cbacked FC Bayern München43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.562673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf122…7110backed FC Bayern München42c229.93$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked FC Bayern München56c224.94$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.925100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67f8…6f42backed FC Bayern München45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc22…2955backed FC Bayern München42c220$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed VfB Stuttgart57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1141233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f6…4892backed VfB Stuttgart56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed FC Bayern München56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.574100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed FC Bayern München42c178.57$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.574652.2%24 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa797…dedebacked FC Bayern München33c175.42$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.032100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+126.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe368…e9edbacked FC Bayern München38c173.05$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.291070%7 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick34cpaid+116.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked VfB Stuttgart58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0f…1366backed VfB Stuttgart58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cf4…5324backed VfB Stuttgart59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e02…9136backed FC Bayern München31c163.52$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.835100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+100.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked FC Bayern München37c153.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.513548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked FC Bayern München79c149.5$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.398447.6%40 W · 44 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf481…1b6bbacked VfB Stuttgart59c135.59$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68f8…12c8backed FC Bayern München43c127.91$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.91580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed FC Bayern München51c127.75$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.965100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked FC Bayern München43c125$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.83966.7%26 W · 13 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e49…e7debacked FC Bayern München43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.282475%18 W · 6 L+6.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+92.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x68aa…0f92backed FC Bayern München43c104.65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb52a…31a2backed VfB Stuttgart57c102$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1450%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75e9…e746backed VfB Stuttgart59c101.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked VfB Stuttgart57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed FC Bayern München50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0170…4c3abacked VfB Stuttgart58c98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed VfB Stuttgart23c97.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad6…eab6backed VfB Stuttgart58c95.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.06812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.39per pick52cpaid-79.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x4edd…ddf1backed FC Bayern München66c91.7$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked VfB Stuttgart69c90$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked VfB Stuttgart41c85.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.18520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-67.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed VfB Stuttgart58c85$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.08850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked VfB Stuttgart59c84.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x69d7…c25cbacked VfB Stuttgart62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe577…6d01backed FC Bayern München38c80$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd924…7bc2backed FC Bayern München55c78.36$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.36650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked VfB Stuttgart55c75.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed VfB Stuttgart57c75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1340%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23fe…0b95backed FC Bayern München56c71.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.534100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked VfB Stuttgart58c71$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked VfB Stuttgart60c70$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.65850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+26.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x26ce…d827backed FC Bayern München43c69.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+95.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd4f…a4d3backed FC Bayern München55c69.31$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.026100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc96…2791backed VfB Stuttgart58c68.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked FC Bayern München42c60.57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.83560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.