Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x180e83053530fcb4153b24ab17a69b9566246175cd173f636432ea32414e364a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Yes | 68c | 18,382$12,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,882.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…6657backed Yes | 66c | 10,133$6,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,394.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 33c | 8,619$2,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,844.27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 32c | 4,959$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.38 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 35c | 4,903$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.94 | 480 | 30.6%147 W · 333 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 32c | 2,153$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 33c | 1,922$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.25 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 65c | 1,761$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.13 | 731 | 51.7%378 W · 353 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 59c | 1,695$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.89 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 33c | 1,540$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.62 | 860 | 32.7%281 W · 579 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 32c | 1,522$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.49 | 433 | 45%195 W · 238 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 33c | 1,449$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace7…462abacked No | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed No | 34c | 1,287$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 32c | 1,250$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 341 | 46%157 W · 184 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Yes | 62c | 1,123$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.19 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 393 | 46.3%182 W · 211 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Yes | 66c | 800$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…41bcbacked Yes | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 29c | 675$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.19 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 67c | 589.84$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.84 | 671 | 45.6%306 W · 365 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 33c | 511.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 40c | 453.91$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.66 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…f1c4backed Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 298.08$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.85 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 34c | 290.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 1,315 | 40.6%534 W · 781 L | -44.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed No | 39c | 263.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 32c | 257.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 1,691 | 45%761 W · 930 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…1bd3backed No | 35c | 230$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747d…73b7backed No | 58c | 170$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…7bc2backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7997…5e4bbacked Yes | 65c | 147$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 38c | 145.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…6562backed Yes | 67c | 144.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 68c | 144$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed No | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked No | 52c | 133.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Yes | 48c | 127.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed No | 35c | 118.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 33c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Yes | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…9136backed Yes | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 34c | 89.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 1,108 | 50.5%560 W · 548 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0145…35d0backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…415abacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed No | 33c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 33c | 74.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 64c | 70.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 402 | 59%237 W · 165 L | +28.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed No | 33c | 68.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 36c | 51.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 64c | 46.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…848dbacked Yes | 67c | 46.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed No | 33c | 42.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…4ab1backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Yes | 65c | 39.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed No | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d6…43a5backed Yes | 65c | 38.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 34c | 34.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 274 | 45.3%124 W · 150 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed No | 35c | 34.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Yes | 68c | 31.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 34c | 30.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 631 | 52.3%330 W · 301 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…68a9backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…9121backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…095bbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…5fdbbacked Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: FC Bayern München O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 5.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.