Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa59bb1afcb1629983b0c30d84c8a549543870f69518dccc9746168e943b73272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 55c | 1,042$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.74 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed No | 2c | 571.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 43c | 511.14$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.87 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 50c | 495.24$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.62 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 42c | 479.24$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.88 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 8c | 462$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 425.87$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 389.26$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 58c | 305.34$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 285.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 35c | 273.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 42c | 265$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.65 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 252.37$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 234.62$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 218$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 47c | 200$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…07d3backed No | 60c | 199.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 11c | 181.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 45c | 170.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 8c | 157$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 144.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 57c | 132.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 129.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 129.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 117$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 114.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 41c | 112.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 82.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 46c | 77.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 60.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 50.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 50.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…f180backed Yes | 37c | 49.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 42c | 47.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 39c | 46.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 44.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 66c | 37.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 45c | 33.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 47c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 50c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 29.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 39c | 27.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 48c | 25.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 23.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 23.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 21.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.