Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5be9f580f8f8c8482159f388abb8870d085f8e7aaa2ec7e57b706f14580b9ae1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 72c | 3,587$2,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.72 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 2,082$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…ed32backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +581.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 56c | 1,768$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 1,200$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.06 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 4c | 1,178$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,033$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 938.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 65c | 922.32$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.56 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 31c | 690$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.91 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 50c | 653.03$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.85 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 522.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.59 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 484.94$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 333$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 27c | 310.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 71c | 243.07$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 193.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 175.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 174.67$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 171.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 29c | 171.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 167.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 40c | 156.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 57c | 146.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 138.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…4b87backed Yes | 30c | 120.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 56c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 107.67$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…f180backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 99.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…f87dbacked No | 31c | 93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +223.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 92.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 89.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 85.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 25c | 83.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 71.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 70.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked No | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 69.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 27c | 68.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 63.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 59.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 65c | 59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 50c | 58.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 30c | 57.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 57c | 54.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 50.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 68c | 49.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…66b0backed No | 77c | 44.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 73c | 43.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 43.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 61c | 40.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed No | 70c | 40.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 38.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 31c | 34.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 73c | 34.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…0d1dbacked No | 43c | 32.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 65c | 30.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…62b5backed Yes | 73c | 27.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 66c | 23.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 45c | 22.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed No | 50c | 22.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed No | 72c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…5f3bbacked No | 76c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.