TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

MLB · resolved market

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$272,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$273,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,748 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Over49c149,186$73,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,482.3455453.2%295 W · 259 L+22.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3aa…4830backed Under51c115,932$59,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,449.53862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under51c102,241$52,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,187.752,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over49c28,838$14,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,040.6459549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over48c18,923$9,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,024.1211,60652.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L+210.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over50c6,000$2,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,97020350.7%103 W · 100 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over47c4,886$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,296.241,30550.2%655 W · 650 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Over51c4,237$2,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,157.2654152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over49c3,233$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.171,92453.4%1,028 W · 896 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over45c3,108$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.849,86246.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L+40.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,08348.1%521 W · 562 L-12.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under51c2,941$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.1819053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over44c2,921$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.328,25146.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L+41.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Under53c2,787$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.622,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over36c2,557$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.943,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Under51c2,275$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.5139047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under66c2,252$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.8711,05451.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L+137.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Under50c2,251$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.411,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over48c2,234$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.422,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f36…2819backed Under51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.782846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under51c1,243$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.71,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under51c1,048$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.454,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under51c1,014$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.365,51750.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L+26.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Over49c999.98$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.9921052.9%111 W · 99 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over47c997.67$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.911,59348.6%774 W · 819 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b2…f6e2backed Under50c902.64$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.321872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Over3c875$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301365.9%8 W · 128 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-64.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Under50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4007354.8%40 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Under50c767.92$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.1765949.2%324 W · 335 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over26c741.55$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1478146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over47c596$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.121,54348.6%750 W · 793 L-5.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Over50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Over51c494.06$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5218551.4%95 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf58c…0b79backed Under53c474.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.846854.4%37 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under68c436.73$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.0612,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Under71c414.18$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.32466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Over3c409.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.611914.3%17 W · 102 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+289.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe956…c4e0backed Under52c400$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe337…1f6fbacked Under56c400$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x013d…0574backed Over4c375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15756.7%5 W · 70 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked Over4c375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15290%0 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0580…f78bbacked Over4c375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15400%0 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under50c350.63$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.647,04650.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L+2.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d8…0175backed Over3c320$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+60.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under50c314.82$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.4128154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Over50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15022848.2%110 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Under51c294.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.1229331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Under51c292.23$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.2322450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over51c285.43$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3134452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over49c277.16$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.641,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over48c255.9$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.831,04448.9%511 W · 533 L+2.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Under51c245.59$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3411550.4%58 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over29c211.18$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.535,17254.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L+227.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Over49c210.82$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1285040.2%342 W · 508 L-3.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under51c208.84$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.331,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over49c204.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.441,44850%724 W · 724 L+26.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b55…1167backed Under77c203.63$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6210959.6%65 W · 44 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Over48c201.71$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8240348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006360.3%38 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Over48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9659150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81d7…32d8backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1008052.5%42 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under74c192.48$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.721,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5760…40aabacked Over50c192.42$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.015337.7%20 W · 33 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Over44c189.85$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5816947.3%80 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under55c181.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.812,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under51c174.9$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8925249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ff…9d91backed Over60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020443.1%88 W · 116 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Under50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8049649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over25c140.09$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.521,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under50c140$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7028350.2%142 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf23…dcb7backed Over50c138$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Over12c134$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5417842.7%76 W · 102 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over48c127.94$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.414,52448.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L-42.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over51c125.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0945246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over44c122.18$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.156,30948.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed Over50c121.88$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.552040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa89…ccd2backed Under53c115.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9819154.5%104 W · 87 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Over51c114.58$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3327146.9%127 W · 144 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Under51c101.79$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9340148.1%193 W · 208 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Under50c100.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4928850.3%145 W · 143 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5061948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3597…3e48backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507250%36 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x313d…6f98backed Under51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b0…0841backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under49c99.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9937357.4%214 W · 159 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Under52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1532366.3%214 W · 109 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over48c92.93$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.061,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef6…9b93backed Over51c90.26$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.956741.8%28 W · 39 L-6.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Under51c90.2$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.231552.4%165 W · 150 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over43c88.19$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1182551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e4…4a19backed Under74c84.13$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.776684.8%56 W · 10 L+15.1wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+34.5%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over53c82.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.982,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3582…88f2backed Over50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83de…1786backed Over49c79.3$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.994434.1%15 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1548…fe8ebacked Under51c77.29$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.874553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f7…b944backed Over23c73.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.642420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under50c72.7$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3599744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d79…1aabbacked Over50c65.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.671752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a80…2dadbacked Over48c63.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.627652.6%40 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.