MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63655b506f13932891e5217cf57e5333a35e2492246204533a7791c644f156ef

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cincinnati Redsof Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds
Resolved: May 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,869

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,179 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds	51c	4,286$2,167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,119.25	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Chicago Cubs	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000.14	122	47.5%58 W · 64 L	-7.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds	62c	1,142$713 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$428.7	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x695d…60d5backed Chicago Cubs	49c	1,089$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.54	31	67.7%21 W · 10 L	+5.6wins	+0.18per pick	50cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb27…b180backed Chicago Cubs	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-3.9wins	-0.21per pick	52cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs	51c	886.65$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.19	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs	48c	833.05$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.86	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds	52c	734.61$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$349.15	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Cincinnati Reds	49c	604.79$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.44	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds	59c	558.18$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.86	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Cincinnati Reds	50c	538.18$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.52	577	44.7%258 W · 319 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds	49c	476.16$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.6	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Chicago Cubs	43c	465.12$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Chicago Cubs	49c	450.15$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.57	491	58.9%289 W · 202 L	+30.8wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57fe…13c1backed Chicago Cubs	38c	443.18$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.41	61	31.1%19 W · 42 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Cubs	34c	389.31$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.75	1,865	52%970 W · 895 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Chicago Cubs	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	228	48.2%110 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Chicago Cubs	29c	254$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.34	781	46.4%362 W · 419 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d14…ff3ebacked Chicago Cubs	53c	225.09$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	128	45.3%58 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x782c…2445backed Chicago Cubs	50c	220$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Chicago Cubs	50c	210$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	564	40.4%228 W · 336 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs	15c	205.09$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.76	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Chicago Cubs	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	591	50.3%297 W · 294 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Cincinnati Reds	50c	196.05$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.84	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4beb…bd08backed Chicago Cubs	52c	194.23$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	36	66.7%24 W · 12 L	+3.9wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Chicago Cubs	53c	189.18$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.64	212	42.5%90 W · 122 L	-13.7wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Chicago Cubs	54c	185.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	383	53.8%206 W · 177 L	+16.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f42…8680backed Cincinnati Reds	51c	167.06$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.06	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Chicago Cubs	38c	163.5$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.53	997	44.1%440 W · 557 L	-38.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Cincinnati Reds	52c	153.85$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.85	665	51.1%340 W · 325 L	-17.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Chicago Cubs	53c	150.46$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	795	43%342 W · 453 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Cincinnati Reds	47c	126.66$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.13	1,292	50.2%648 W · 644 L	+18.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Cincinnati Reds	50c	111.31$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.65	1,001	48.3%483 W · 518 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5668…eababacked Chicago Cubs	50c	110$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Chicago Cubs	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	784	54.5%427 W · 357 L	+19.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs	14c	99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs	50c	90$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Chicago Cubs	51c	89.49$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.64	946	48.9%463 W · 483 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Chicago Cubs	51c	89.49$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.64	418	47.6%199 W · 219 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Cincinnati Reds	50c	87.81$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.81	312	50%156 W · 156 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee8…07c4backed Chicago Cubs	33c	81.82$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Chicago Cubs	51c	80.79$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.2	524	49%257 W · 267 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Cincinnati Reds	45c	79.8$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.89	753	44.1%332 W · 421 L	-10.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Cincinnati Reds	51c	79$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.71	478	48.5%232 W · 246 L	-15.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Cincinnati Reds	50c	78$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	466	59.7%278 W · 188 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Cincinnati Reds	48c	67.06$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.86	825	51.6%426 W · 399 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago Cubs	33c	63.27$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	1,843	43.6%804 W · 1,039 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Chicago Cubs	29c	62.36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	265	53.2%141 W · 124 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Cincinnati Reds	49c	61.98$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.61	722	47.6%344 W · 378 L	-12.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Chicago Cubs	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1,197	53.9%645 W · 552 L	+42.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68cc…e8c8backed Cincinnati Reds	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	326	47.9%156 W · 170 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Chicago Cubs	50c	57.39$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.7	841	40.2%338 W · 503 L	-3.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs	50c	56$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	721	54.2%391 W · 330 L	+20.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+144.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6aa…ef47backed Chicago Cubs	50c	55.32$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.66	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Cincinnati Reds	49c	55$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.05	223	50.7%113 W · 110 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Cincinnati Reds	66c	52.65$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.9	1,723	50.3%867 W · 856 L	+55.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds	48c	51.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.67	841	22.7%191 W · 650 L	-81.4wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Chicago Cubs	34c	49.65$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.88	267	52.8%141 W · 126 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds	48c	49.62$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Chicago Cubs	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	625	54.2%339 W · 286 L	+18.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Chicago Cubs	49c	47.97$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.51	186	48.4%90 W · 96 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe956…c4e0backed Chicago Cubs	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Cincinnati Reds	50c	39.42$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.71	225	54.7%123 W · 102 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Cincinnati Reds	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	330	51.8%171 W · 159 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe337…1f6fbacked Chicago Cubs	51c	35.41$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.06	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41c7…8963backed Cincinnati Reds	49c	32.65$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.65	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Cincinnati Reds	50c	31.48$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.74	1,284	49.5%635 W · 649 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07c9…9f5bbacked Cincinnati Reds	51c	31.37$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.37	316	50.6%160 W · 156 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Chicago Cubs	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	348	43.4%151 W · 197 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Chicago Cubs	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	114	42.1%48 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Cincinnati Reds	67c	29.89$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	178	42.7%76 W · 102 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Cincinnati Reds	51c	27.45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.45	899	50.6%455 W · 444 L	-24.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Chicago Cubs	51c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Cincinnati Reds	63c	24.95$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.12	1,269	47.4%602 W · 667 L	-31.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Chicago Cubs	51c	23.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	297	52.5%156 W · 141 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Cincinnati Reds	50c	21.72$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.86	169	47.3%80 W · 89 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Cincinnati Reds	48c	20.84$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.84	235	22.6%53 W · 182 L	-20.7wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Chicago Cubs	50c	20.46$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Cincinnati Reds	52c	19.42$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.32	143	53.1%76 W · 67 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event