Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa671e8439f20f69992fc069babc028ea285562a8359dad80a950371d87fac617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 31c | 750.69$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.56 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 378.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 26c | 327.06$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 291.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 273.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 271.47$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 261.7$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 11c | 245.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 211.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…abc5backed Yes | 35c | 206.34$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 169.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 68c | 167.25$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 150.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 35c | 143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 137$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 51c | 125.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 30c | 123.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 116$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 34c | 100.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 100.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 96.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 31c | 93.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 92.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 84.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 32c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…1ecdbacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 76.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 31c | 74.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 71.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 63.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 63.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 62.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 30c | 59.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 35c | 59.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 57.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 52.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 51.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 67c | 48.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 47.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…6071backed Yes | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 44.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 73c | 38.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 64c | 38.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 39c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 28c | 36.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 34.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 32.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 70c | 32.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 32c | 31.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…ec99backed No | 71c | 30.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 30.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 28.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 47c | 25.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 64c | 25.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 23.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 23.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 65c | 22.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8a…74b1backed No | 68c | 22.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 22.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 74c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 70c | 19.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 65c | 15.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.