Will Sweden vs. Slovenia end in a draw?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa68991332b23fb03598bb6e86942bd41c9e830f30f17ec19e8d53e573540251a

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,177
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,177 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Yes	26c	5,636$1,453 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,182.72	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No	43c	3,225$1,390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,389.63	293	43%126 W · 167 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa365…ee73backed No	73c	3,000$2,190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,189.98	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked No	73c	3,000$2,190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,189.96	46	69.6%32 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	69cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No	68c	2,389$1,629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,629.25	359	42.9%154 W · 205 L	-16.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-24%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes	57c	2,009$1,141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$868.02	760	48.7%370 W · 390 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	19c	1,537$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.9	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes	27c	1,497$404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,093.23	170	48.2%82 W · 88 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No	14c	1,152$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.11	63	33.3%21 W · 42 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes	34c	1,143$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$750	69	39.1%27 W · 42 L	+6.4wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	+20%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x253d…348dbacked Yes	27c	1,000$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$732.16	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Yes	39c	766.98$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$466.98	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes	25c	720.67$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540.5	236	22%52 W · 184 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes	39c	547.19$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.06	346	30.1%104 W · 242 L	-21.8wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No	80c	473.4$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.01	237	38.8%92 W · 145 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No	22c	421.48$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.23	1,001	53.9%540 W · 461 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6771…b783backed No	74c	416.63$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.31	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f57…7298backed No	74c	405.41$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.5wins	-0.73per pick	73cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7740…cd28backed No	74c	405.41$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb836…fa1cbacked No	74c	405.41$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9244…4b6ebacked Yes	25c	392.69$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.69	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No	15c	392.37$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.86	85	38.8%33 W · 52 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7fd…3a1cbacked No	75c	386.67$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes	27c	371.3$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.3	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+3.3wins	+0.15per pick	48cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Yes	27c	370.37$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.37	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+18%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1400…9f95backed No	74c	337.84$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	60cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde44…cb51backed Yes	43c	325.58$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.58	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2d1…84a2backed Yes	26c	300$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b51…8d2fbacked No	74c	270.27$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.74per pick	74cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac96…403abacked No	74c	270.27$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	69cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x526b…a0e9backed No	75c	266.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-2.0wins	-0.66per pick	66cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc587…1630backed No	74c	203.93$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.28	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-7.9wins	-0.22per pick	64cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8c67…63fcbacked No	76c	199.51$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6996…ed71backed No	74c	189.19$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	60cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…3e3dbacked No	21c	172.32$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.69	131	31.3%41 W · 90 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	73c	150$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.75	186	41.4%77 W · 109 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x406e…0d29backed No	74c	148.65$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No	70c	142.86$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	226	50.9%115 W · 111 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed No	73c	138.97$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.64	104	52.9%55 W · 49 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes	25c	137.51$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.88	673	54.7%368 W · 305 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8655…6022backed No	74c	135.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No	33c	124.89$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.11	168	41.1%69 W · 99 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes	26c	115.67$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.24	1,045	29.3%306 W · 739 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No	48c	106.71$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.26	550	45.1%248 W · 302 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3e…addfbacked No	74c	106.66$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.93	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.5wins	-0.73per pick	73cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Yes	27c	100$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73	71	38%27 W · 44 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Yes	27c	92.59$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.59	107	49.5%53 W · 54 L	+11.4wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x84b2…f1dabacked Yes	27c	92.59$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.59	303	21.5%65 W · 238 L	+8.9wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb939…ed05backed No	74c	91$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.34	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Yes	25c	80$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	83	28.9%24 W · 59 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed No	72c	77.99$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.15	140	40.7%57 W · 83 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d24…a93fbacked No	67c	75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.25	135	38.5%52 W · 83 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x660e…76ccbacked Yes	27c	74.07$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.07	192	41.1%79 W · 113 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ba…996fbacked No	75c	66.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No	73c	65$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.45	423	52%220 W · 203 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes	26c	65$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.25	62	22.6%14 W · 48 L	-7.2wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x11a3…0740backed Yes	24c	62.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.5	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.8wins	+0.61per pick	39cpaid	+184.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1182…b6bbbacked Yes	33c	61.43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.43	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc35…2329backed No	75c	60$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	70cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8deb…d8e2backed Yes	28c	55.61$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.91	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9911…b38abacked Yes	27c	55.56$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.56	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+36.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes	27c	50.1$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.59	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+71.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a96…e12fbacked Yes	26c	50$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6328…1bf3backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes	27c	50$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.5	123	27.6%34 W · 89 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x156e…46fdbacked Yes	27c	50$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.5	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7641…e092backed Yes	42c	47.62$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.62	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c82…05cfbacked No	74c	46.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.67	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes	26c	42.34$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.45	81	45.7%37 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd13c…8938backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+2.1wins	+0.35per pick	32cpaid	+232.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No	74c	33.69$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.93	287	54.7%157 W · 130 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…cfadbacked No	37c	32.32$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	39	25.6%10 W · 29 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb4…8ba4backed No	75c	26.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.75per pick	75cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes	48c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.44	226	56.6%128 W · 98 L	+18.9wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No	73c	21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.33	464	53.2%247 W · 217 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked No	73c	21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.33	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No	73c	21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.33	397	49.9%198 W · 199 L	-16.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No	73c	20.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.33	112	59.8%67 W · 45 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefb2…b043backed No	71c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	32	68.8%22 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	73cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3b0…d159backed Yes	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed No	73c	16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	73	49.3%36 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked No	73c	16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	202	45.5%92 W · 110 L	-13.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Sweden vs. Slovenia end in a draw?this page
Will Slovenia win on 2025-11-18?No won
Will Sweden win on 2025-11-18?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sweden vs. Slovenia end in a draw?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event