NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6a74a12009ced463983675db5f93295083f5769c271ac0912ea58aa0d688bfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Under | 48c | 6,860$3,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,292.78 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 4,997$2,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428.63 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 1,696$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 52c | 1,618$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.64 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 953.42$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.61 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 50c | 750$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.5 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 53c | 300$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 52c | 296.15$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.15 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd9…230abacked Under | 48c | 241.67$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 12c | 176.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 52c | 141$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 42c | 121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 45c | 112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 110.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Under | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 45c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Over | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Over | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Over | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Over | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked Over | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5this page
- Mavericks vs. JazzJazz won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.