NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01c5f8a99f0d858681b8463701a69e2f5a3bcb8071f266ac16847ad5898252ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 50c | 4,025$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,013.94 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…5862backed Under | 52c | 3,254$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 8c | 490$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 7c | 395.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 354.93$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.56 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 147.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Over | 60c | 146.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 118.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Under | 24c | 84.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Over | 44c | 60.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb9…f79bbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Under | 38c | 47.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…6510backed Under | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Under | 40c | 38.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Under | 40c | 31.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a31…fe6cbacked Under | 37c | 26.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…0b88backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…ac41backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +210.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5this page
- Mavericks vs. JazzJazz won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.