NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc81656df1df39504c1d5673eeff52837b284f681456db588292a2e2cdb0923ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Mavericks, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jazz | 48c | 2,979$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.93 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 55c | 2,114$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Mavericks | 48c | 2,079$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.84 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Mavericks | 45c | 2,045$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.25 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz | 49c | 1,846$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.7 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Jazz | 58c | 1,420$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.4 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Mavericks | 50c | 696$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 55c | 610.45$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Jazz | 56c | 249.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Mavericks | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…957cbacked Mavericks | 44c | 218.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Jazz | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Mavericks | 55c | 188.15$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Jazz | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 211 | 64.5%136 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Mavericks | 44c | 148.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Mavericks | 44c | 147.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Jazz | 60c | 146.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 56c | 127.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Jazz | 59c | 123$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Jazz | 45c | 121.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Mavericks | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Mavericks | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Jazz | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mavericks | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Jazz | 58c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…7a7abacked Mavericks | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Jazz | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…a87abacked Jazz | 53c | 47.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Mavericks | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc53…71f2backed Mavericks | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Mavericks | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…dbf6backed Mavericks | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7d…5852backed Mavericks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Mavericks | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Mavericks | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Jazz | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Jazz | 74c | 16.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. JazzJazz won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.