NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ea5870f29b8d2d462660010832f9e791be966d00a88eac19bfb8a6ea9597c3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Mavericks, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…1795backed Mavericks | 50c | 15,183$7,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,553.83 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Mavericks | 48c | 10,137$4,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,865.54 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Jazz | 52c | 10,137$5,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,865.54 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 49c | 9,739$4,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,996.65 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 50c | 8,323$4,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,167.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Mavericks | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Jazz | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.99 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz | 48c | 3,900$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.23 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Mavericks | 52c | 3,118$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.16 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Mavericks | 50c | 2,839$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.33 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Jazz | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Mavericks | 50c | 2,332$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Jazz | 50c | 988$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jazz | 44c | 730.44$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.06 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Jazz | 50c | 600.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.21 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Mavericks | 52c | 561.26$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.86 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jazz | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Mavericks | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Jazz | 50c | 405.6$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Jazz | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Mavericks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Mavericks | 12c | 340$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Jazz | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…7d8dbacked Mavericks | 6c | 202.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Mavericks | 12c | 196$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Jazz | 50c | 146$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Mavericks | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…fbffbacked Mavericks | 51c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Mavericks | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 56c | 69.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Mavericks | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 50c | 52.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…3bf1backed Jazz | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Jazz | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Mavericks | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Mavericks | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Jazz | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Jazz | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631e…a121backed Mavericks | 52c | 39.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed Mavericks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Jazz | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…b5a2backed Mavericks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Mavericks | 43c | 38.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Jazz | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Mavericks | 52c | 37.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Mavericks | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Mavericks | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Mavericks | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Jazz | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks | 49c | 26.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Mavericks | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. JazzJazz won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.