NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82c400d2c24921d0306b465400d387553d89b80184046235bfb1bc135a6d2be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 10,890$4,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,725.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 54c | 4,503$2,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,071.5 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 42c | 3,868$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.48 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 59c | 3,736$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.4 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 59c | 3,390$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.83 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 53c | 1,118$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.26 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Over | 63c | 796.02$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.02 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 37c | 602.57$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.9 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 41c | 554$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.14 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b5…42f9backed Over | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 43c | 473.45$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.52 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Under | 39c | 324.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 64c | 313.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 42c | 226.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 202.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 42c | 173$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 40c | 157.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 132.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…fe6dbacked Over | 54c | 129$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Over | 64c | 94.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 59c | 76.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce80…5250backed Under | 44c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 39c | 66.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…224cbacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Under | 36c | 34.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 37c | 34.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 183 | 47.5%87 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…2635backed Over | 62c | 18.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…4a75backed Over | 79c | 13.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5this page
- Mavericks vs. JazzJazz won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.