NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09bd8ee5a16b37b1d26a32ef46f9c35de6809ca4aaff5e66c8d37f7a32a61de0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 5,264$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,581.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 4,398$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 1,607$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.61 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 47c | 1,284$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.19 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.15 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Over | 53c | 750$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Over | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 5c | 325.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Over | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 9c | 117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 113.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 107.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 44c | 107$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 60c | 98.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Under | 50c | 94.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 47c | 72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Under | 47c | 70.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Under | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Under | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Over | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…4462backed Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfce5…8e89backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Over | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…e264backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…9eb4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebe…92bcbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…0c21backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5this page
- Mavericks vs. JazzJazz won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.