MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6b785e3de83211081f45d04b716443a0a46c9ae94fce5c0d6e980d22d132f29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 14,795$7,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,101.81 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 11,649$6,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,562.3 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 4,883$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.56 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 4,848$2,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.1 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 2,273$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 1,929$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.84 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 1,917$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.9 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 1,570$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.76 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 1,425$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.93 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 1,103$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.38 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 844$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.36 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked San Diego Padres | 3c | 570$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 538.74$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 399$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.57 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 240.19$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…06a2backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 124.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 119.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 74.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 53.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 36.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…e9bdbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 25.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 18.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-7.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-8.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.