MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f55ef182fe21f9b24e88dbaedc8eb5aa2f5841adbb4193d0397e082d0d847c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 53c | 47,776$25,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,589.39 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 30,734$14,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,419.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 26c | 11,825$3,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,783.25 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 9,791$5,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,258.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 71c | 8,608$6,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 67c | 6,250$4,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,187.5 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…5affbacked Under | 9c | 5,398$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb018…51fbbacked Under | 12c | 5,123$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 3,872$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,479.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…401fbacked Under | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 37c | 2,287$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.38 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc2…1be1backed Under | 16c | 1,875$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 14c | 1,589$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.23 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 64c | 1,498$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.16 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Over | 52c | 1,408$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.81 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…11fcbacked Under | 79c | 1,271$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 1,095$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 27c | 945.36$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 35c | 769$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.85 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 36c | 522$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.71 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 52c | 505.24$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.52 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed Under | 77c | 500$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.48 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 50c | 436.53$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.47 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 65c | 436.48$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 34c | 424.17$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 8c | 328$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.76 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 74c | 280.57$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 275.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Under | 37c | 263.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…694fbacked Under | 48c | 257.25$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 48c | 247.24$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.65 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 33c | 188.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.04 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Under | 61c | 165.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 44c | 150.09$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 39c | 105.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Over | 53c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 58c | 99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 50c | 92.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 64c | 87.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 35c | 87.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 40c | 77.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 33c | 62.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 64c | 61.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 48c | 60.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 33c | 59.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 49c | 56.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 38c | 54.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 39c | 49.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Under | 68c | 44.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 49c | 42.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 64c | 40.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 52c | 38.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed Under | 34c | 33.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 55c | 33.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 53c | 30.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Under | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 55c | 24.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Under | 67c | 23.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 79c | 17.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…47f5backed Under | 67c | 16.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 67c | 16.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Under | 74c | 15.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-7.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-8.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.