MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cf9ba63ae3477b849bc8aeff1cb2692ba8f21a6962cdc7a678e225655553a9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 52c | 28,846$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,846.15 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 48c | 28,662$13,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,757.63 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 9,037$4,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,573.42 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 51c | 5,856$3,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,848.15 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 47c | 4,494$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,381.87 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed Under | 70c | 4,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800.17 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 3,390$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.3 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Under | 58c | 2,950$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.04 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 2,870$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.77 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 1,772$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.39 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.17 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 52c | 1,475$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.26 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 1,453$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.68 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 1,115$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.18 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 1,033$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.34 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 60c | 811$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.77 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 703.22$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.57 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 48c | 620.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.01 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 48c | 608.81$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.19 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 50c | 559.18$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.53 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 46c | 498.22$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.02 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 53c | 493.97$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.94 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 49c | 469.45$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.03 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f34…b8f2backed Under | 8c | 425$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 55c | 402.27$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.68 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 4c | 399.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 48c | 371.22$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 322.5$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.25 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 53c | 299$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.53 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 290.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.41 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 19c | 279.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Under | 69c | 232.74$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.59 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 49c | 228.48$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 57c | 193$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 43c | 189$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 48c | 180.08$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 48c | 166.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 165.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 29c | 130.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 49c | 122.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 39c | 99.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Under | 49c | 98.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 73c | 97.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 11c | 97.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 53c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 44c | 89.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 57c | 82.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 44c | 60.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b36bbacked Over | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 55c | 58.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Over | 51c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 65c | 48.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 56c | 47.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…b710backed Under | 68c | 43.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 39c | 43.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 49c | 43.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…ce6cbacked Over | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 31c | 39.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 65c | 37.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 55c | 35.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 55c | 30.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 47c | 30.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 34c | 29.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…fd9dbacked Under | 68c | 29.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Over | 52c | 26.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Over | 52c | 25.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…fcc6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-7.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-8.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.