MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf52625b87793097e98abfbf29793d5d643a452b13ffc37e0f36fb2efab062ee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 19c | 1,633$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.51 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 1,112$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.01 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 518.85$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.88 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 443$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.95 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 354.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.86 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 257.96$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 209.74$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 19c | 183.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…33c9backed San Diego Padres | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 100.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 99.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 94.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 91.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 75.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 60.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 60.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 54.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 52.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Diego Padres | 69c | 31.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-7.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-8.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.