TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$490,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$580,292

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,355 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Yandex69c31,750$22,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,690.680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Yandex65c27,772$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,772.051,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Team Yandex66c23,900$15,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,148.3633746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Yandex68c21,481$14,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,947.9628159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Tundra Esports34c20,000$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,80036041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Tundra Esports31c15,000$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,65040051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports14c14,699$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.391,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eab…d4bfbacked Tundra Esports0c12,837$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.842119%4 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05a…119bbacked Tundra Esports0c12,200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Tundra Esports32c12,164$3,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,889.6422644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda14…1c2dbacked Tundra Esports1c11,730$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.11118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-70.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a6d…ace1backed Tundra Esports0c10,711$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.79862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Tundra Esports1c10,579$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5392056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Tundra Esports30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0004035%14 W · 26 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Tundra Esports34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40027153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Tundra Esports31c9,710$2,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,987.1769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Yandex68c9,222$6,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.7696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Tundra Esports34c8,224$2,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,835.841056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Yandex66c7,903$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,703.3948954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Tundra Esports2c7,228$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9199844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Yandex71c7,112$5,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,033.4661456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Tundra Esports36c6,364$2,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3151,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Team Yandex65c5,555$3,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.255244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Tundra Esports36c5,500$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.999839.8%39 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Tundra Esports36c5,450$1,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.493644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Tundra Esports30c5,014$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.0429042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Tundra Esports29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.9917651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Tundra Esports34c4,900$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.7756955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Tundra Esports35c4,900$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71436248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked Tundra Esports1c4,038$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5621144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Team Yandex65c3,852$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.9443344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked Team Yandex65c3,844$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.8316954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc62d…74fcbacked Team Yandex66c3,537$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.665251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Tundra Esports35c3,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22529348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Tundra Esports29c3,404$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00448539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Tundra Esports31c3,363$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.5335951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Tundra Esports31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00039343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Tundra Esports11c3,205$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34035062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Team Yandex72c3,175$2,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87911753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Tundra Esports36c3,069$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.3615848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed Tundra Esports37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1103562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Tundra Esports35c2,505$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.7525248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a28…871abacked Team Yandex67c2,500$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8252100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Tundra Esports33c2,493$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.6915144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Tundra Esports33c2,308$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.1149455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x433c…81eabacked Team Yandex64c2,284$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.231546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Team Yandex67c2,234$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.6122853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Tundra Esports35c2,199$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.181029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Tundra Esports35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70017133.9%58 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Tundra Esports1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201153.5%4 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Tundra Esports2c2,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6449644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Tundra Esports34c2,000$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.441,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Tundra Esports28c1,998$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.4568649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb24f…3432backed Tundra Esports12c1,800$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21713742.3%58 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x299b…cdc1backed Team Yandex76c1,758$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.496552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Tundra Esports24c1,746$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.8988539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Tundra Esports36c1,659$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.6617146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb333…c7eebacked Team Yandex68c1,610$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.232560%15 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked Team Yandex64c1,563$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.522450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Tundra Esports35c1,560$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.7650850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Team Yandex65c1,554$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.97058.6%41 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked Tundra Esports36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5404443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd2…f5c4backed Team Yandex64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5407864.1%50 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Tundra Esports37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55518550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51c9…29e5backed Team Yandex64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5402548%12 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Tundra Esports29c1,450$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.595342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Tundra Esports21c1,445$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.2637832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Tundra Esports35c1,428$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.841351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Tundra Esports7c1,427$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9716945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Tundra Esports7c1,422$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5289741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked Tundra Esports37c1,400$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51214750.3%74 W · 73 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports31c1,396$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.081,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x772b…5facbacked Tundra Esports23c1,280$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.3926848.9%131 W · 137 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Tundra Esports13c1,250$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.522727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Team Yandex68c1,247$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.725752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed Team Yandex71c1,235$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.9515848.1%76 W · 82 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Tundra Esports5c1,225$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2745352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Yandex67c1,200$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39631547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Tundra Esports1c1,198$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7997142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Tundra Esports30c1,184$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.7789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf597…efeebacked Tundra Esports3c1,148$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.569223.9%22 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c1…8174backed Team Yandex67c1,140$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.4524947.8%119 W · 130 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Tundra Esports32c1,120$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.430336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Team Yandex67c1,110$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.350347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Tundra Esports12c1,052$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.881,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Tundra Esports29c1,010$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8245750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Yandex63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37035758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Tundra Esports10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10044149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Yandex63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37060349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Yandex67c999.99$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Team Yandex71c985.92$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.9225359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Tundra Esports21c953.37$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.222,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce5…94dabacked Team Yandex70c952.5$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.753043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94f4…77a2backed Team Yandex71c952.5$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.167850%39 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Tundra Esports13c921.57$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.421,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Tundra Esports35c902.54$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.8924153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Tundra Esports31c887.91$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.2526846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Team Yandex58c872.84$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.5951140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Tundra Esports8c861.43$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9154246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Yandex64c804.96$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.1655251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.