Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7885e75148172c97f7c1a2986a043326e0f058bc5710cf155d8b6a67dd0da9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 77c | 20,520$15,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,720.43 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 23c | 18,966$4,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,376.57 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 76c | 7,500$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…12b4backed No | 78c | 6,410$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 4,801$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.9 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 12c | 3,190$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.86 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 22c | 3,066$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.48 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…e28cbacked No | 79c | 2,791$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,300$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,045$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Yes | 22c | 999.98$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 23c | 919.36$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.45 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 22c | 831.82$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 79c | 682.43$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.31 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…be2ebacked Yes | 2c | 600.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 4cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc92…7505backed Yes | 3c | 533.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 20c | 481.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e9…d891backed Yes | 22c | 461.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 16c | 458.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…8b6fbacked Yes | 21c | 420.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…7c72backed Yes | 24c | 420$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 23c | 377.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 24c | 335$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 79c | 334.68$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 21c | 326.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…4853backed Yes | 21c | 304.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 27c | 300$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…0e7fbacked Yes | 24c | 280.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed No | 77c | 270.1$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9920…8f8ebacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…0c8fbacked Yes | 21c | 213.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…f42dbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 208$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…e978backed Yes | 6c | 198.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 77c | 124.61$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes | 14c | 124.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 22c | 121.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bc…0279backed Yes | 21c | 121.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Yes | 24c | 112.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 23c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 183 | 34.4%63 W · 120 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 21c | 95.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ab…fc85backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 22c | 91.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…b73abacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…862ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc334…0e88backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked Yes | 24c | 82.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda5…840dbacked Yes | 25c | 79.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Yes | 21c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 29c | 70.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131f…bb8dbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 24c | 56.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…49e2backed Yes | 24c | 50.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c24…0f25backed Yes | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…d5aabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe209…685bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7183…dcc3backed No | 77c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d4…d3aabacked No | 78c | 18.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +183.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-17?Yes won
- Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.